Weekly Market Update – November 14, 2025

Quick Takes

• Last week was a virtual vacuum for economic data and earnings news, leaving stocks mixed as the S&P 500 Index eked out the slightest of gains while the technology-heavy Nasdaq Composite Index and the small cap Russell 2000 Index both lost ground.
• The longest U.S. government shutdown on record, 43 days, came to an end on Wednesday night after President Donald Trump signed a spending bill that will keep the government funded through January 30.
• The National Federation of Independent Business (NFIB) reported that their Small Business Optimism Index slipped slightly, roughly in line with Wall Street expectations, but their Uncertainty Index fell meaningfully, to its lowest level since December, despite the shutdown.

Source: Bloomberg. Data as of November 14, 2025.
Price Returns for Equity, Total Returns for Bonds.
* The term basis points (bps) refers to a common unit of measure for interest rates and other percentages in finance. One basis point is equal to 0.01%. Bond prices and bond yields are inversely related. As the price of a bond goes up, the yield decreases.

Markets end week flat to down as the government reopens

Last week was a virtual vacuum for economic data and earnings news, leaving stocks mixed as the S&P 500 Index eked out the slightest of gains (up a mere +0.1%) while the technology-heavy Nasdaq Composite Index fell -0.5% and the small cap Russell 2000 Index dropped -1.8%. One would have thought that the end of the longest US government shutdown would have caused a sigh of relief for investors. But there were few signs of respite for investors as the government reopening was overshadowed by rising concerns over Artificial Intelligence (AI) stock valuations and diminishing odds for a December rate cut. That resulted in stocks having their worst day in more than a month on Thursday—the first day the government was reopened in 43 days. The S&P 500 fell -1.7% on Thursday, its worst day since sinking -2.7% on October 10. The Russell 2000 sank -2.8% on Thursday, its worst day since dropping -3.0% on October 10. The Nasdaq fell -2.3% versus a -3.6% loss on October 10. 

The lengthy government shutdown appears to be still weighing on investors, because even with the reopening, economists and policymakers are still operating without key government data. Indications are that the reports will begin to be released this week, but it will likely be messy, with some reports to be delivered weeks late, while other data will be incomplete or just not “clean”. That could have implications on Fed policymakers, perhaps making them more inclined to leave rates unchanged at their December 9-10 policy meeting and willing to wait until more data, or missing data, is made available. A quarter-point cut in December was considered a certainty, but the government shutdown on October 1 has changed that dramatically. Traders placed the odds at roughly 44% that the Fed will cut rates at the December meeting, according to the CME FedWatch Tool. In terms of the Fed’s dual mandate, maintaining stable prices and promoting maximum employment, the October Consumer Price Index (CPI) release that was slated for release last Thursday is delayed until early or mid-December, while the September Employment Situation Report (i.e. the monthly jobs report) will be released on Thursday. It is still not clear when the October jobs report will be released, and Economic Council Director Kevin Hasset indicated that report wouldn’t include the unemployment rate. The monthly jobs report is composed of two surveys — one of businesses, which produces the main nonfarm payrolls number, and another of households, which underpins the unemployment rate.

Of course, overseas investors didn’t have the US government shutdown distraction, and for the week, outperformed their US stock counterparts. Virtually all non-US stock indexes were positive, led by developed markets, as the MSCI EAFE Index rose +1.6%, rebounding from two weeks of losses. Europe and the United Kingdom were up more than +2% and Japan gained +0.9%. Meanwhile, the MSCI Emerging Markets Index increased a modest +0.3% after falling -1.3% the previous week. The MSCI Latin America Index was up +1.7%. On Friday, the Trump administration announced broad tariff exemptions on foods such as bananas, coffee, and cocoa through new trade deals with Argentina, Ecuador, Guatemala, and El Salvador.

In the bond world, there wasn’t much action with US Treasury yields generally drifting slightly higher across the curve during the shortened week – the bond market was closed Tuesday in observance of Veterans Day. The benchmark 10-year US Treasury yield and 30-year UST yield both ended the week up +5 basis points, at 4.15% and 4.75% respectively. The 2-year UST yield was up +4 basis points to 3.61%. With yields up, bond returns were down slightly (bond yields and returns move in opposite directions). The Bloomberg U.S. Aggregate Bond Index slipped -0.2% following the prior week’s barely visible +0.03% return. Non-US bonds were essentially unchanged last week, with the Bloomberg Global Aggregate ex U.S. Bond Index returning -0.02% following a -0.1% loss the previous week, and are now down for four straight weeks.

Chart of the Week

The National Federation of Independent Business (NFIB) reported that their Small Business Optimism Index slipped to 98.2 from an unrevised 98.8 the prior month. That was roughly in line with Wall Street expectations for 98.3. This was the second monthly decline, but it remains above the survey’s 52-year average of 98. Of the 10 component indexes, four increased, while five declined, and one was unchanged. The improvements were Credit Conditions, which improved +4 points to a net -3%, those viewing Inventory Stock as too low improved +3 points to a net -4%, and Plan to Make Capital Outlays as well as Now a Good Time to Expand both rose +2 points to +23% and +13% respectively. On the downside, Earnings Trends flipped from last month’s best to this month’s worst with a -9 point drop to a net -25%.  Plans to Increase Inventories and Expect Economy to Improve were both down -3 points to -2% and -20% respectively. However, the separate Uncertainty Index fell meaningfully by -12 points to 88. That is the lowest level for the Uncertainty Index since December, despite the government shutdown, but remains elevated relative to the 52-year average of 68.

Small Business Optimism Slips but Uncertainty Also Eases in October

NFIB Small Business Optimism and Uncertainty Indices

Source: National Federation of Independent Business (NFIB), Bloomberg.

The Week Ahead

After the longest government shutdown in U.S. history, markets are bracing for a busy week as delayed economic data begins to be reported. The Bureau of Labor Statistics will finally release the delayed September Employment Situation Report (includes nonfarm payrolls and the unemployment rate) on Thursday, offering insights into hiring trends. However, uncertainty lingers over the October jobs numbers and Consumer Price Index (CPI), with White House officials suggesting the nonfarm payrolls will be released, but the unemployment rate won’t. Other highlights include Wednesday’s minutes from the Federal Reserve’s late-October meeting, Thursday’s housing starts data from the Census Bureau, and Friday’s manufacturing and services PMI readings from S&P Global. Additionally, there are a total of 14 Fed speaker events scheduled this week.

On Wall Street, all eyes are on Nvidia, the world’s most valuable company and AI powerhouse, when it reports quarterly earnings on Wednesday. The report comes at a pivotal time for the tech sector, amid concerns over cooling AI enthusiasm. Otherwise, there aren’t many third quarter earnings reports left outside of the retail sector which will provide a pulse on the American consumer. Home Depot reports Tuesday, followed by Lowe’s and Target on Wednesday, and Walmart on Thursday.

Did You Know?

40 IS THE NEW 30 – In the 12 months ending June 2025, the share of first-time home buyers dropped to a record low of 21%, and their average age increased to an all-time high of 40. Delaying home ownership from age 30 to 40 can mean losing $150,000 in built-up equity on an average starter home. (Source: National Association of Realtors)

BETTING BAD FOR SOCIETY – Young adults bet on sports more than any other age group, but they’re also growing uneasy about it. While 31% of adults under 30 have bet on sports in the past year versus 22% of all adults, 47% of men under 30 now say legal sports betting is bad for society, which is more than double the 22% who felt similarly in 2022. (Source: Pew Research)

UNLOCKING – People who sold their homes in Q3 owned their properties for an average of 8.4 years, the longest tenure in at least 25 years. Sellers in Massachusetts (12.9 years) led six states with average ownership periods of 10+ years, while Maine was the only state with an average ownership tenure of less than five years. (Source: ATTOM)

This Week in History

DOUBLE-ENTRY – On November 10, 1494, a book detailing the practice of double-entry bookkeeping was printed in Venice. Luca Pacioli’s “Summa de Arithmetica, Geometria, Proportioni et Proportionalita” outlined the basis of what would become modern corporate balance sheets. (Source: The Wall Street Journal)

Economic Review

• Due to the current partial US government shutdown, the release of the following reports has been delayed or postponed: 
• • • Weekly Initial Jobless Claims and Continuing Claims (Department of Labor)
    • October Consumer Price Index (CPI) (Bureau of Labor Statistics) 
    • October Producer Price Index (PPI) (Bureau of Labor Statistics) 
    • October Retail Sales Advance (Census Bureau)
    • September Business Inventories (Bureau of Economic Analysis)
    • October Federal Budget Balance (US Treasury)
• Weekly MBA Mortgage Applications rose +0.6% for the week ending November 7, after falling -1.9% the prior week. The Purchase Index was up +5.8% after being down -0.6% the prior week. The Refinance Index fell -3.6% after slipping -2.8% the prior week. The average 30-Year Mortgage Rate ticked up to 6.34% from 6.31% the prior week.

Asset Class Performance

Source: Bloomberg.
Asset‐class performance is presented by using market returns from an exchange‐traded fund (ETF) proxy that best represents its respective broad asset class. Returns shown are net of fund fees for and do not necessarily represent performance of specific mutual funds and/or exchange-traded funds recommended by The Retirement Planning Group. The performance of those funds may be substantially different from the performance of the broad asset classes and to proxy ETFs represented here. US Bonds (iShares Core US Aggregate Bond ETF); High‐Yield Bond (iShares iBoxx $ High Yield Corporate Bond ETF); Intl Bonds (Vanguard Total International Bond ETF); Large Growth (iShares Russell 1000 Growth ETF); Large Value (iShares Russell 1000 Value ETF); Mid Growth (iShares Russell Mid-Cap Growth ETF); Mid Value (iShares Russell Mid-Cap Value ETF); Small Growth (iShares Russell 2000 Growth ETF); Small Value (iShares Russell 2000 Value ETF); Intl Equity (iShares MSCI EAFE ETF); Emg Markets (iShares MSCI Emerging Markets ETF); and Real Estate (iShares US Real Estate ETF). The return displayed as “Allocation” is a weighted average of the ETF proxies shown as represented by 24% US Bonds, 10% International Bonds, 6% High Yield Bonds, 13.8% Large Growth, 13.8% Large Value, 3.6% Mid Growth, 3.6% Mid Value, 1.2% Small Growth, 1.2% Small Value, 16.8% International Stock, 4.2% Emerging Markets, 1.8% Real Estate.
* The term basis points (bps) refers to a common unit of measure for interest rates and other percentages in finance. One basis point is equal to 0.01%. Bond prices and bond yields are inversely related. As the price of a bond goes up, the yield decreases.