Weekly Market Update – November 28, 2025

Quick Takes

• After its worst week since October the previous week, last week the S&P 500 rallied +3.7%, which was its best week since May. The tech-heavy Nasdaq Composite and the small-cap Russell 2000 were up +4.9% and +5.5%, respectively.
• Futures pricing now implies an 87% chance of a quarter-point cut at the December 9-10 meeting, as dovish comments from some Fed officials and some weaker-than-expected economic data reinforced the rationale for a December cut and boosted investor sentiment.
• The 10-year US Treasury yield and the 30-year UST yield both ended the week down -5 basis points, at 4.01% and 4.66% respectively. The Bloomberg U.S. Aggregate Bond Index returned +0.4% following the prior week’s +0.5% return.

Source: Bloomberg. Data as of November 28, 2025.
Price Returns for Equity, Total Returns for Bonds.
* The term basis points (bps) refers to a common unit of measure for interest rates and other percentages in finance. One basis point is equal to 0.01%. Bond prices and bond yields are inversely related. As the price of a bond goes up, the yield decreases.

Wall Street Served Up a Thanksgiving Week Feast

A little over a week ago, on Friday, November 21, the S&P 500 Index posted its worst week since early October and was -5.1% off from its October 28 all-time high. It was the first time the S&P 500 had been at a -5% pullback from all-time highs since May. Investors were fretting about the economy, bloated valuations, the sustainability of Artificial Intelligence (AI) growth, and the Federal Reserve’s (Fed) plans for interest rates. The CNN Business Fear & Greed Index was flashing Extreme Fear at a level of 7 (out of 100), its lowest point since the April tariff tantrum low of 3. Likewise, the Cboe Volatility Index (VIX) touched its highest level since April on 11/20 (26.42). 

But then Wall Street went on a bull market feast over the Thanksgiving holiday-shortened week. The S&P 500 jumped +3.7% for the week, increasing each of the four sessions of Thanksgiving week for the first time since 2016 on the way to its best Thanksgiving week since 2008 when it jumped +12%. By the end of the week, the S&P was just -0.6% from a record high, the CNN Fear & Greed had moved up to 24, and the VIX had fallen to 16.35.

As impressive as the week was for the large-cap S&P 500, it was even better for the technology-heavy Nasdaq Composite Index and the small-cap Russell 2000 Index. The Nasdaq gained +4.9% for the week, its best week since May. The Russell jumped +5.5%, which is its strongest week since the November 8, 2024, post-election pop. 

The stark reversal in investor sentiment is likely largely due to the reversal in expectations for a Fed rate cut in December. Futures pricing now implies an 87% chance of a quarter-point cut at the December 9-10 meeting, boosted by dovish comments from some Fed officials and several weaker-than-expected economic reports that reinforced the rationale for a December cut. The Commerce Department reported that US retail sales slowed in September, increasing at +0.2% versus expectations for +0.4%. The Conference Board reported that consumer confidence fell sharply in November, dropping to 88.7, the lowest level since April. On Wednesday, the Fed released its Beige Book—published eight times per year by the Fed’s 12 regional banks with information and data about economic conditions in their respective districts. The report noted that Fed officials saw little change in overall economic activity across most of the 12 districts, while “employment declined slightly.” It wasn’t all bad though, weekly unemployment claims came in the lowest since April, while Durable Goods were solid, as Business Spending easily beat Wall Street expectations (see Chart of the Week for more detail). 

Virtually all non-US stock indexes were up as well, but couldn’t match their US counterparts. The developed markets MSCI EAFE Index rose +3.2%, nearly offsetting the prior week’s -3.4% loss. The MSCI indices for Europe, Asia Pacific, and Japan were all up between +2.5% to +3.3%. Meanwhile, the MSCI Emerging Markets Index gained +2.5% versus the prior week’s -3.7% drop. The MSCI China Index rebounded +2.3%, clawing back more than half the prior week’s -5.5% drop. The Latin America Index led with a +4.4% advance. 

In the bond world, US Treasury yields were down as rate cut expectations rose. The benchmark 10-year US Treasury yield and the 30-year UST yield both ended the week down -5 basis points, at 4.01% and 4.66% respectively. The 2-year UST yield was down -2 basis points to 3.49%. With yields down, bond returns were up (bond yields and returns move in opposite directions). The Bloomberg U.S. Aggregate Bond Index returned +0.4% following the prior week’s +0.5% return. Non-US bonds, as measured by the Bloomberg Global Aggregate ex U.S. Bond Index, were up +0.9%, rebounding from the prior week’s -0.9% loss.

Chart of the Week

The Census Bureau reported Durable Goods Orders for long-lasting items such as televisions, appliances, and transportation equipment rose +0.5% in September, following an upwardly revised +0.5% increase (from +0.4%) in August, and matching Wall Street expectations. Durable Goods Orders Excluding Transportation were up +0.6%, above expectations for a +0.2% reading and up from the prior month’s upwardly revised +0.5% level (from +0.3%). More impressively, the important Core Capital Goods Orders (capital goods excluding volatile sectors like transportation and defense), a proxy for business spending, rose +0.9%, well above expectations for a +0.3% reading and unchanged from the upwardly revised (from +0.4%) rise the prior month. Core Capital Goods Shipments, which are factored into GDP, jumped +0.9%, exceeding expectations for a +0.2% gain and up an upwardly revised -0.1% reading the month before (from -0.4%). The bottom line from the report is that business spending (nondefense capital goods orders, excluding aircraft) showed no signs of slowing, and August data was revised higher.

Durable Goods Report Shows No Slow Down in Business Spending

Durable Goods and Capital Spending, Dec. 2021 – Sept. 2025

Source: Census Bureau, Bloomberg.

The Week Ahead

As we enter the final month of the year with the government reopened, the economic calendar remains packed with regularly scheduled releases plus expectations for some of the delayed and postponed data from the government shutdown.  The Institute for Supply Management (ISM) and competitor S&P Global releases will release Purchasing Managers’ Indexes (PMIs) for November this week. The manufacturing reports from each firm come on Monday, followed by the services equivalent on Wednesday.  ADP publishes its National Employment Report for November on Wednesday. With the November nonfarm payrolls report from the Bureau of Labor Statistics delayed until December 16, the numbers could take on added importance for Wall Street.  The Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) will release delayed September export and import price data on Wednesday. The BLS also finally releases the Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) Price Index for September on Friday after more than a month delay due to the government shutdown. Also out on Friday is the University of Michigan’s Consumer Sentiment Index for December and Consumer Credit for September from the Federal Reserve.  

Did You Know?

TURKEY TRAFFIC – A record 81.8 million people will travel at least 50 miles from home for the Thanksgiving holiday, and 73.3 million will be on the road. One of the most congested routes will be from New York City to the Hamptons on Tuesday afternoon, where the average travel time is expected to increase from 1.5 to 4 hours. (Source: AAA)

THANKSGIVING TRADING – Since 1945, the S&P 500’s average move during Thanksgiving trading week was +0.59% with gains 65% of the time. In years when the S&P 500 was already up at least 10% year-to-date, the average Thanksgiving week performance was +0.73% with positive returns 77% of the time. (Source: Bespoke)

REJECTED – In the New York Fed’s tri-annual “Credit Access Survey,” the percentage of US consumers who applied for credit cards but were rejected rose to 24.8%, which is the highest reading in the history of the survey since 2013. The rejection rate for consumers with sub-680 credit scores also hit a record-high 63%. (Source: New York Fed).

This Week in History

CARNEGIE B-DAY – On November 25, 1835, Andrew Carnegie was born in Scotland. Carnegie came to the U.S. when he was 13 and went on to forge the steel industry that made America’s railroads, bridges, and cars possible. By 1901, he was the world’s richest man. (Source: The Wall Street Journal)

Economic Review

• September wholesale inflation increased with the headline Producer Price Index (PPI) rising +0.3% for the month, in line with expectations and up the prior month’s unrevised -0.1% decline. Year-over-year (YoY) PPI increased at a +2.7% rate, above expectations for +2.6%, and unchanged from the prior month after it was revised up from +2.6%. Core PPI, which strips out volatile food and energy costs, was up +0.1% for the month, compared to expectations for a +0.2% rise, and up from a -0.1% reading the prior month (unrevised). YoY Core PPI was up +2.6%, lower than expectations for +2.7% and down from the prior month’s +2.9% annual rate (revised up from +2.8%). The index for final demand goods was up +0.9%, its biggest jump since February 2024, versus the index for final demand services, which was unchanged from the prior month. The bottom line is that the report showed inflation at the wholesale level remains sticky, particularly for the foods index. 
• The Commerce Department reported that U.S. Retail Sales for September were up +0.2%. That was well below Wall Street expectations for a +0.4% increase and down from an unrevised +0.6% the prior month. Retail sales represent about one-third of all consumer spending and offer clues on the strength of the economy. Retail Sales Ex-Autos rose +0.3% for the month, following a downwardly revised +0.6% increase the prior month (originally +0.7%) and matching expectations. Sales Ex-Autos and Gas rose +0.1%, below expectations for a +0.3% rise and down from +0.6% the prior month (revised down from +0.7%). The Control Group, a figure used to calculate Gross Domestic Product (GDP), slipped -0.1%, below expectations for a +0.3% increase and down from +0.6% the prior month (revised lower from +0.7%). Miscellaneous store retailers, gas stations, and drug stores led the growth. Nonstore retailers posted an atypical decline. Sporting goods and hobby stores, department stores, apparel stores, electronics and appliance stores, and vehicle dealers also posted sales declines. The bottom line is that the report showed consumer spending was relatively flat aside from gasoline station sales, signaling an unexpected decline in consumer spending.
• The Conference Board’s Consumer Confidence Index dropped to 88.7 in November from an upwardly revised 95.5 the prior month (originally 94.6). That was below Wall Street expectations for a decrease to 93.3. In the same period a year ago, the index stood at 112.8. The Present Situation gauge fell to 126.9 from an upwardly revised 131.2 (from 129.3) the prior month. The Expectations gauge — which reflects consumers’ six-month outlook — sank to 63.2 from an upwardly revised 71.8 the prior month (from 71.5). Sustained levels below 80 on the expectations index can signal a recession within the next year, while in good times the index can top 120 or more. Consumers’ views of both business conditions and the labor market deteriorated sharply. The labor market differential, which measures how plentiful jobs seem to consumers, plunged to -11.9 in November from 10.3, the lowest since May 2020. 
• The Texas Manufacturing Outlook Survey worsened in November, with the General Business Activity still negative at -10.4, down from -5.0 the prior month and far below the expected reading of -2.0. However, the Production index, a key measure of state manufacturing conditions, expanded at a markedly faster pace at +20.5, a +15.3-point jump in November. New Orders were also up +6.5 points to +4.8, while Shipments jumped +9.3 points to +15.1. Labor market measures mixed, with Employment down -0.8 to +1.2, but Hours Worked rose +15.4 to +9.9. Both Prices Paid and Prices Received increased for a third straight month, to +35.3 and +10.8. The Company Outlook index fell. Indicators of conditions Six Months Ahead mostly improved and are still mostly positive. The Texas Service Sector Outlook Survey weakened for the month, falling to -9.4 from -5.6 the prior month (unrevised). The Texas Service Sector Outlook Survey improved to -2.3 from an unrevised -9.4 the prior month.
• The Chicago Purchasing Managers Index (PMI), a barometer for the region’s business and manufacturing conditions (also known as the Chicago Business Barometer), fell to 36.3 in November from an unrevised 43.8 the prior month. That was far below Wall Street expectations for a 43.6 reading and is the first time the index is below 40 since January. Readings below the 50 level indicate contraction, and it has been in contraction territory for 24 consecutive months now. The decrease was driven by declines in Order Backlogs, New Orders, Production, and Employment. An increase in Supplier Deliveries provided a small offset. Prices Paid rose to the highest level in four months.
• The Richmond Fed Manufacturing Survey sank to -15 in November from an unrevised -4 the prior month. That was much worse than expectations for a dip to -5. Two of the three component indexes fell, with only the Employment index improving, but all three remain in contraction (negative) territory. The New Orders components sank -16 points to -22, and the Shipments component fell -18 points to -14. The Employment index increased +3 points to -7, after rising +5 points the previous month. The average growth rates of Prices Paid increased notably in November after dipping in October, while growth in Prices Received was nearly unchanged from October. On the positive side, the expectations index for Shipments increased to +25 from +13, and New Orders rose to +26 from +12, although expectations index for Employment inched down to −1 from +2. The Richmond Fed Service Sector Survey also tumbled, falling to -15 from an unrevised -1 the prior month.
• The National Association of Realtors (NAR) reported that Pending Home Sales were up +1.9% in October after the prior month’s slight +0.1% rise (revised higher from 0.0%). That was above Wall Street expectations for a +0.2% increase. Year-over-year sales slipped -0.4%, down from the prior month’s +1.7% annual rate (revised up from +1.5%). NAR members expect a +17% increase in buyer traffic over the next three months, down from +20% the prior month and +19% one year ago. Meanwhile, +16% expect an increase in seller traffic, down from +19% last month and +19% in October 2024. From a regional perspective: the Midwest rose +5.3% for the month and +0.9% for the year; the South was up +1.4% and +2.0% for the month and year; the Northeast was up +2.3% for the month and down -1.0% for the year; and the West was down -1.5% and -7.0% for the month and year.
• According to the S&P Cotality Case-Shiller 20-City Home Price Index, U.S. housing prices increased +0.13% in September, a slight improvement from a downwardly revised +0.12% (originally +0.19%). That was better than expectations for a +0.10% gain. This was the second month of price gains following five months of declines, as lower mortgage rates bring some buyers back into the market. Of the 20 cities tracked by the index, 13 rose over the month with San Francisco being the strongest (+0.82%) while Tampa was the weakest-performing market (-0.65%). On a year-over-year (YoY) basis, the 20-city index was up +1.36%, under expectations for a +1.40% rise and down from a +1.57% annual increase the month before (revised lower from +1.58%). Eleven of the 20 cities fell over the year with Tampa being the weakest-performing market (-4.14%), while Chicago was the strongest (+5.45%).  
• The competing Federal Housing Finance Agency (FHFA) House Price Index (HPI) showed U.S. home prices were flat in September after an unrevised +0.4% in August. The results were shy of Wall Street expectations for a +0.2% rise. The government data showed home prices up +1.7% year-over-year, down from +2.4% the prior month. House prices were up in 4 of the 9 regions on an annual basis and mixed for the month-over-month comparison as well.
• Weekly MBA Mortgage Applications inched up +0.2% for the week ending November 21, after falling -5.2% the prior week. The Purchase Index jumped +7.6% after being down -2.3% the prior week. The Refinance Index fell -5.7% after dropping -7.3% the prior week. The average 30-Year Mortgage Rate ticked up to 6.40% from 6.37% the prior week.
• Weekly Initial Jobless Claims fell -6,000 to 216,000 for the week ending November 21, better than expectations for 225,0000. The prior week was revised higher to 222,000 from 220,000. The number of people already collecting unemployment claims (i.e., Continuing Claims) rose +7,000 to 1,960,000 for the week ending November 8, which was better than expectations for 1,963,000. The prior week’s reading was revised lower from 1,974,000 to 1,953,000. 

Asset Class Performance

Source: Bloomberg.
Asset‐class performance is presented by using market returns from an exchange‐traded fund (ETF) proxy that best represents its respective broad asset class. Returns shown are net of fund fees for and do not necessarily represent performance of specific mutual funds and/or exchange-traded funds recommended by The Retirement Planning Group. The performance of those funds may be substantially different from the performance of the broad asset classes and to proxy ETFs represented here. US Bonds (iShares Core US Aggregate Bond ETF); High‐Yield Bond (iShares iBoxx $ High Yield Corporate Bond ETF); Intl Bonds (Vanguard Total International Bond ETF); Large Growth (iShares Russell 1000 Growth ETF); Large Value (iShares Russell 1000 Value ETF); Mid Growth (iShares Russell Mid-Cap Growth ETF); Mid Value (iShares Russell Mid-Cap Value ETF); Small Growth (iShares Russell 2000 Growth ETF); Small Value (iShares Russell 2000 Value ETF); Intl Equity (iShares MSCI EAFE ETF); Emg Markets (iShares MSCI Emerging Markets ETF); and Real Estate (iShares US Real Estate ETF). The return displayed as “Allocation” is a weighted average of the ETF proxies shown as represented by 24% US Bonds, 10% International Bonds, 6% High Yield Bonds, 13.8% Large Growth, 13.8% Large Value, 3.6% Mid Growth, 3.6% Mid Value, 1.2% Small Growth, 1.2% Small Value, 16.8% International Stock, 4.2% Emerging Markets, 1.8% Real Estate.
* The term basis points (bps) refers to a common unit of measure for interest rates and other percentages in finance. One basis point is equal to 0.01%. Bond prices and bond yields are inversely related. As the price of a bond goes up, the yield decreases.