Weekly Market Update – January 30, 2026

Quick Takes

• Wall Street closed out a bumpy week with a mixed performance, as tech earnings, shifting expectations for interest rate policy, and surprising news about the future of the Federal Reserve all competed for investors’ attention.
• After two straight weekly losses, the S&P 500 rebounded last week for a +0.3% gain. The index crossed 7,000 for the first time on Wednesday morning but drifted lower over the next several days. The Nasdaq and Russell 2000 were down -0.2% and -2.0%, respectively.
• The week’s economic data painted a mostly constructive picture—with the glaring exception of Consumer Confidence which unexpectedly fell to levels not seen since May 2014. That contradicted the Consumer Sentiment Index which showed an improvement.

Source: Bloomberg. Data as of January 30, 2026.
Price Returns for Equity, Total Returns for Bonds.
* The term basis points (bps) refers to a common unit of measure for interest rates and other percentages in finance. One basis point is equal to 0.01%. Bond prices and bond yields are inversely related. As the price of a bond goes up, the yield decreases.

Markets Mixed as Fed Pause, Tech Earnings, and Fed Chair Announcement Stir Investors

Wall Street closed out a bumpy week with a mixed performance, as tech earnings, shifting expectations for interest-rate policy, and surprising news about the future of the Federal Reserve all competed for investors’ attention.

US Stocks Started Higher Out of the Gate but Then Ground Lower as the Week Progressed

After two straight weekly losses of -0.4%, the S&P 500 Index finally broke the streak, inching up +0.3% for the week. The index also crossed 7,000 for the first time on Wednesday morning before drifting lower over the next several days. 

Some corners of the market clearly stood out:

• Top-performing sectors:
  • Communication Services +4.2%
  • Energy +3.9%
• Weakest sectors:
  • Health Care –1.7%
  • Consumer Discretionary –1.4%

The broader market mirrored the S&P’s early climb but faced a rockier path down, especially after earnings from the tech giants rolled in. Four of the “Magnificent Seven” reported results, and the reaction was far from uniform. Apple was up +4.6% for the week and Meta advanced +8.8%, a clear standout, but disappointing investors were Tesla, which fell –4.2%, and Microsoft, which dropped –7.7%, dragging on tech leadership. Despite some big-name stumbles, earnings overall are holding up well. With roughly one-third of S&P 500 companies having reported so far, fourth-quarter blended earnings growth stands at +11.7% year-over-year, according to FactSet.

International Stocks Continue to Outperform Despite Geopolitical Ripples

In what has become a fairly persistent pattern, non-US equities again outperformed their domestic counterparts. The developed markets MSCI EAFE Index was up +1.6% for the week, its tenth consecutive positive week. The MSCI UK Index led developed markets with a +1.6% gain, extending its own winning streak to ten weeks. Most other European nations were up as well. The eurozone economy grew +1.5% in 2025, not spectacular but up nicely from +0.9% in 2024, and above the European Commission’s (EC) forecast for +1.3%. 

Emerging markets led global stocks as the MSCI Emerging Markets Index was up +1.8% following the previous week’s +1.1% gain. It is on a six-week win streak and has been positive in nine of the last ten weeks. The MSCI China Index rebounded +0.7% from the prior week’s -0.5% dip. The MSCI Asia Ex-Japan Index was up +2.0% in US dollar terms, and the MSCI Latin America Index rose +1.1%. The US dollar was down -0.6%, following the prior week’s -1.8% drop, providing a tailwind for non-US markets.

A Pause, Two Dissents, and a Surprise Nomination

The bond market’s focus last week was squarely on the Federal Reserve, which—after three straight rate cuts—kept the federal funds rate unchanged at 3.50% to 3.75% at its January meeting. Policymakers described economic growth as “solid” and noted modest improvement in the labor market.

But the meeting wasn’t unanimous. Fed Governors Miran and Waller both preferred a quarter-point rate cut, creating extra uncertainty around the central bank’s next moves. The next FOMC meeting is scheduled for March 17–18.

Then came the true curveball: President Donald Trump announced he would nominate former Fed Governor Kevin Warsh to replace Jerome Powell as Fed Chair.

Warsh hasn’t minced words about his view of the current Fed. According to Barron’s, he has promised a “regime change,” arguing that Powell’s Fed relies too heavily on outdated data and overlooks the impact of government spending and money supply on inflation. Warsh has said the current Fed “has failed” and must both set rates correctly and “look like you know what you’re doing.”

The unexpected nomination injected yet another layer of uncertainty into bond markets already adjusting to shifting rate expectations. Ultimately, bond yields were mixed, but returns were relatively muted. The 2-year US Treasury yield dropped -7 basis points to 3.52% but the 10-year US Treasury yield ticked up +1 basis point to 4.2% and the 30-year US Treasury yield climbed +5 basis points to 4.87%. Overall, the Bloomberg US Aggregate Bond Index returned +0.3%, following the prior week’s +0.1% return. Non-US bonds, as measured by the Bloomberg Global Aggregate ex US Bond Index, were up +1.3% following a +0.82% return the prior week.

Economics: Confidence Confounds, Orders Jump, Inflation Rises

The week’s economic data painted a mostly constructive picture—with one glaring exception: Consumer Confidence. The Conference Board’s index dropped sharply to 84.5 in January, down from 94.2. That’s the lowest reading since May 2014. More respondents said jobs were harder to get than plentiful. The index, provided by the Conference Board, contradicted the previous week’s Consumer Sentiment Index from the University of Michigan that saw consumer sentiment improve in January and also conflicts with the Fed’s more upbeat take on the state of the US labor market.

A Commerce Department report that was delayed by the US government shutdown late last year showed that Durable Goods Orders increased by +5.3% in November, after declining by -2.1% in October. The value of Core Capital Goods Orders, a measure that excludes big-ticket items such as aircraft and military hardware, rose +0.7% over the same period. Both were well ahead of Wall Street consensus expectations.

On the inflation front, the Producer Price Index (PPI) increased +0.5% month-over-month and +3% year-over-year in December, exceeding expectations. Service prices, which rose +0.7% during the period, drove the upside. 

The US Trade Deficit widened to $56.8 billion in November from 29.2% in October. The wider deficit pulled down the Atlanta Fed Q4 GDPNow reading to +4.2% from +5.4% before the trade figures.

Initial Jobless Claims came in at 209,000 for the week ending January 24—above the consensus estimate but a slight step down from the 210,000 applications for unemployment benefits received in the previous week. Continuing Claims, meanwhile, fell to about 1.83 million in the week ending January 17, the lowest level since September 2024.

The Bottom Line

The week was rocky, with economic data, Fed headlines, and earnings reports all shifting market behavior throughout the week. But on balance the macroeconomic picture remains constructive, and on balance, earnings results are beating expectations. Major global indices remain near record high levels and bond spreads remain near all time tights, indicating low concern for any material downside.

Chart of the Week

The Conference Board Consumer Confidence Index plummeted to 84.5 in January from a sharp upwardly revised 94.2 in December (originally 89.1). The January reading was far below Wall Street expectations to come in at 91.0 and is the lowest level since 2014. In the same period a year ago, the index stood at 105.3. The Present Situation gauge fell to 113.7 from a downwardly revised 123.6 (from 116.8) the prior month. The Expectations gauge — which reflects consumers’ six-month outlook — fell to 65.1 from an upwardly revised 74.6 (originally 70.7). Sustained levels below 80 on the expectations index can signal a recession within the next year, while in good times the index can top 120 or more. The bottom line is that the January report is a bit of a conundrum in that the readings for the headline index, as well as both the present situation and expectations for the future sub-indices, were revised sharply higher for the previous month, but in January the overall index fell to a level that was lower than the depths seen during the COVID pandemic. It also contradicts the January increase in the more-widely reported Consumer Sentiment Index reported the previous week by the University of Michigan.

US Consumer Confidence Plummets to Lowest Level Since 2014 in January

Conference Board Consumer Confidence Index (Jan 2010 – Jan 2026)

Source: The Conference Board, Briefing.com.

The Week Ahead

This week’s economic highlight is the Bureau of Labor Statistics Employment Situation Report for January on Friday. Nonfarm payrolls growth has been tepid for the last few months so markets will be watching for any signs of improvement. Purchase Manager Indices (PMIs) dominate the first half of the week with competing data from S&P Global and the Institute for Supply Management (ISM) releasing Manufacturing PMIs on Monday, and Services PMIs on Wednesday. The regional MNI Chicago PMI is also due on Monday. Before Friday’s big jobs report, investors will digest the most recent job openings data from the JOLTS report on Tuesday. The regular weekly MBA Mortgage Applications and Unemployment Claims will be delivered on Wednesday and Thursday, respectively. In addition to Nonfarm Payrolls and the unemployment rate on Friday, the University of Michigan will release the preliminary read on February Consumer Sentiment and the week concludes with Consumer Credit later on Friday. Of course, many of those government reports assume there is no government shutdown. The White House and Democrats have agreed to a deal to avert a partial shutdown, but the House of Representatives won’t be able to vote on any funding bill until Monday. Current funding for the government ran out at midnight on Friday.

Earnings season for the fourth quarter is off to a solid start with about 165 S&P 500 companies having already released results, and about 75% of them have beaten analyst EPS estimates. This will be the busiest of the season with more than 115 companies set to report. Palantir Technologies and Walt Disney kick off the week on Monday, followed by Advanced Micro Devices, Merck, PepsiCo and Pfizer on Tuesday. Alphabet, Eli Lilly, and Uber announce earnings on Wednesday, while Amazon.com, Shell, and Bristol Myers Squibb report on Thursday. Toyota Motor and Philip Morris report Friday.

Did You Know?

CAP SAVINGS – President Trump’s proposal for a 10% cap on credit card interest rates would collectively save consumers $100 billion annually with per capita savings of $899. While there would be an overall savings for consumers, those with credit scores below 600 would face reduced access to credit. (Source: Vanderbilt University)

MEGACAP WEAKNESS – From its high on October 29, 2025, through the close on January 20, the Bloomberg Magnificent 7 Index fell -6.5% but since then it has rallied back +5.4% (as of January 30). That leaves it just -1.4% from the October 29 record high. (Source: Bloomberg)

APPLE’S LOSING STREAK – Dating back to the week after Thanksgiving, shares of Apple fell eight straight weeks through January 23. Since 1982, Apple has had eight prior 8-week losing streaks, with the last occurring in May 2022. Last week Apple advanced +4.6% to break the losing streak. That compares to an average gain of +7% in the week after the previous 8-week losing streaks, which resulted in positive returns in 6 of the 8 times. (Source: Bespoke)

This Week in History

CHALLENGER EXPLOSION – On January 28, 1986, The Space Shuttle Challenger exploded during its launch. Billions of people around the world were watching when the spacecraft blew up 73 seconds after taking off from the Kennedy Space Center in Florida. All seven crew members aboard were killed, including Christa McAuliffe, who made history as the first teacher in space. A lengthy investigation found the cause was an O-ring failure in a rocket booster, aggravated by extreme cold weather. (Source: The Wall Street Journal)

Economic Review

• The Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago reported its Chicago Fed National Activity Index (CFNAI) showed that US economic activity improved in November to -0.04 from -0.42 in October (which was revised lower from the originally reported -0.21). That was better than Wall Street expectations for a reading of -0.20. Readings below zero indicate below-trend growth in the national economic activity. Three of the four broad categories of indicators used to construct the index increased from the prior month, and three made negative contributions. The Production and Income category improved to +0.08, up from -0.26 the prior month. The Employment, Unemployment, and Hours category contributed -0.07, an improvement from -0.11 the prior month. The Personal Consumption and Housing category contributed -0.02, up from -0.03. The Sales, Orders, and Inventories category contribution was -0.03, unchanged from the prior month. Overall breadth of the index improved with 40 of the 85 individual indicators making positive contributions, versus just 25 the prior month, while 45 made negative contributions. Improvements in the individual indicators were better, with 58 indicators improving, up from 52 the prior month. Of the improving indicators, 22 made negative contributions, up from 32 the prior month. The CFNAI three-month moving average increased to -0.24 from -0.43 the prior month. During the last 20 years, there has been a 91% correlation between the three-month index level and the quarterly change in real GDP. 
• According to the US Census Bureau, the US Trade Deficit for November widened to -$56.8 billion from -$29.2 billion in October (revised from -$29.4 billion), which was the smallest trade deficit since June 2009. That was worse than the -$44.0 billion deficit expected. Smaller trade deficits help contribute to economic growth, while larger deficits inhibit growth. Exports were $10.9 billion less than October exports, and Imports were $16.8 billion more than October imports. Exports of consumer goods decreased -$3.1 billion, while imports of consumer goods jumped +$9.2 billion, with pharmaceutical preparations accounting for +$6.7 billion. Adjusted for inflation, the real goods deficit widened by -$23.5 billion to -$87.1 billion. A key takeaway from the report is that the widening in the deficit will detract from Q4 GDP growth.
• December wholesale inflation increased with the headline Producer Price Index (PPI) rising +0.5% for the month, above expectations for +0.2% which was the unrevised level the prior month. Year-over-year (YoY) PPI increased at a +3.0% rate, above expectations for +2.8%, but where it was the prior month (unrevised).  Core PPI, which strips out volatile food and energy costs, was up +0.7% for the month, compared to expectations for a +0.2% rise, and up from a +0.0% reading the prior month (unrevised). YoY Core PPI was up +3.3%, above expectations for +2.9% and up from the prior month’s +3.1% annual rate (revised higher from +3.0%). The index for final demand goods was unchanged after a +0.8% jump the prior month, whereas the index for final demand services was up +0.7%, the largest increase since July after a +0.5% increase the prior month.
• The Commerce Department reported that Factory Orders jumped +2.7% in November, above expectations for a +1.6% increase, and up sharply from the -1.2% decline the prior month (revised higher from -1.3%). Factory Orders Excluding Transportation were up +0.2%, up from -0.1% the prior month after being revised higher from -0.2%. The final read for November Durable Goods Orders for long-lasting items such as televisions, appliances and transportation equipment was +5.3%, in line with expectations from where they were in the advance report. That followed an upwardly revised -2.1% drop (from -2.2%) the prior month. Durable Goods Orders Excluding Transportation were up +0.4%, a tick below the +0.5% advance reading but above the prior month’s unrevised +0.1% level. The important Core Capital Goods Orders (capital goods excluding volatile sectors like transportation and defense), a proxy for business spending, was up +0.4%, down from the expected +0.7% advance reading but up from the downwardly revised +0.3% rise the prior month (originally +0.5%). Core Capital Goods Shipments, which are factored into GDP, rose +0.2%, below expectations of the +0.4% advance reading and well below the unrevised +0.8% reading the month before. The inventory-to-shipments ratio held at 1.56 for the fifth month in a row.
• The Census Bureau reported Wholesale Inventories rose +.02% to $915.0 billion in November, matching expectations and the prior month (unrevised). Year-over-Year (YoY) inventories were up +1.7%, down from the +1.8% annual rate the prior month. That is still well below the typical +4% to +6% annual increase in strong economies. Inventories are goods produced for sale that have not been sold yet. Wholesale Trade Sales rose +1.3% to $714.1 billion, after falling -0.4% the prior month (unrevised), and easily beat expectations for a -0.1% decline. YoY sales were up +5.2%. Wholesale inventories data isn’t adjusted for inflation. The Inventory-to-Sales Ratio ticked down to 1.28 months from 1.29 months. The ratio reflects how long it would take a company to sell all the goods sitting on warehouse shelves.  
• The Chicago Purchasing Managers Index (PMI), a barometer for the region’s business and manufacturing conditions (also known as the Chicago Business Barometer), rose to 54.0 in January from 42.7 the prior month (revised lower from 43.5). That easily beat Wall Street expectations for a 43.7 reading. Readings below the 50 level indicate contraction and January’s reading broke a 25-month streak of contractionary readings. Five components rose versus three the prior month. The rise was driven by increases in Employment, New Orders, Order Backlogs and Production. A decline in Supplier Deliveries provided a marginal offset. New Orders surged by +15.8 points to their highest level since March 2022. Employment popped +17.5 points to the highest level since December 2024. Order Backlogs rose +11.5 points to exceed 50 for the first time since December 2022. Prices Paid fell -9.0 points, the lowest level since January 2025. 
• The Texas Manufacturing Outlook Survey rebounded sharply in January, with the General Business Activity up +10.1 points to -1.2, much better than expectations for -8.5 and up from -11.3 the prior month (revised down from -10.9). The Production index, a key measure of state manufacturing conditions, jumped to +11.2 from -3.0 the prior month. New Orders increased +18 points to +11.8, Capacity Utilization rose +12 points to +7.1, and the Shipments index jumped to +12.0 from -10.5. The Company Outlook rebounded into positive territory, at +2.9 from -12.3 while the Outlook Uncertainty index increased to +4.8. The Employment index rose +10.0 points to +8.2, while the Hours Worked improved to +0.7 from -7.8. Prices Paid was +37.1 while Prices Received rose +10.0 points to +18.5. The Texas Service Sector General Business Activity weakened for the month, falling to -3.3 from -2.3 the prior month (unrevised). The Texas Service Sector Company Outlook improved +7.7 points to +2.7.
• The Richmond Fed Manufacturing Survey slid to -6 in January from an unrevised -7 the prior month. That was below expectations for an increase to -5. Two of the three component indexes rose, and all remain in contraction (negative) territory. The New Orders components rose +2 points to -6 and the Shipments component rose +6 points to -5. The Employment index fell -5 points to -6. The average growth rate of Prices Paid increased slightly in January, while average growth in Prices Received decreased somewhat.
• According to the S&P Cotality Case-Shiller 20-City Home Price Index, US housing prices increased by +0.47% in November, up from a positively revised +0.36% the prior month (originally +0.32%). That was better than expectations for a +0.22% gain. This was the fourth month of price gains following five months of declines. Of the 20 cities tracked by the index, only 6 rose over the month with regional divergences persisting as New York rose +0.40%, followed by Los Angeles at +0.37%, while Boston fell -0.76% and Cleveland declined -0.67%. On a year-over-year (YoY) basis, the 20-city index was up +1.39%, above expectations for a +1.20% rise and up from a +1.32% annual increase the month before (revised higher from +1.31%). Chicago reported the highest annual gain (+5.71%), followed by New York (+5.03%), while Tampa again posted the lowest annual return (-3.86%), with Dallas the next worst (-1.42).
• The competing Federal Housing Finance Agency (FHFA) House Price Index (HPI) showed US home prices were up +0.6% in November after a +0.4% increase the prior month (unrevised). The results were well above Wall Street expectations for +0.3% rise. The government data showed home prices up +1.9% year-over-year, up from the prior month’s +1.8% annual rate. House prices were up in 3 of the 9 regions on a monthly basis, and 6 of 9 were up on an annual basis. The monthly changes ranged from -0.24% in the Mid Atlantic division to +0.56% in the Pacific division. The 12-month changes ranged from -0.4% in the Pacific division to +5.1% in the East North Central division.
• Weekly MBA Mortgage Applications fell -8.5% for the week ending January 23, after surging +14.1% the prior week. The Purchase Index slipped -0.4% after rising +5.1% the prior week. The Refinance Index dropped -15.7% after jumping +20.4% the prior week. The average 30-Year Mortgage Rate rose to 6.24% from 6.16% the prior week—which was the lowest level since 6.14% for the week of September 27, 2025.
• Weekly Initial Jobless Claims fell -1,000 to 209,000 for the week ending January 23, better than expectations for 212,0000. The prior week was unrevised. The number of people already collecting unemployment claims (i.e., Continuing Claims) fell -38,000 to 1,827,000 for the week ending January 17, which was better than expectations for 1,850,000. The prior week’s reading was unrevised. 

Asset Class Performance

Source: Bloomberg.
Asset‐class performance is presented by using market returns from an exchange‐traded fund (ETF) proxy that best represents its respective broad asset class. Returns shown are net of fund fees for and do not necessarily represent performance of specific mutual funds and/or exchange-traded funds recommended by The Retirement Planning Group. The performance of those funds may be substantially different from the performance of the broad asset classes and to proxy ETFs represented here. US Bonds (iShares Core US Aggregate Bond ETF); High‐Yield Bond (iShares iBoxx $ High Yield Corporate Bond ETF); Intl Bonds (Vanguard Total International Bond ETF); Large Growth (iShares Russell 1000 Growth ETF); Large Value (iShares Russell 1000 Value ETF); Mid Growth (iShares Russell Mid-Cap Growth ETF); Mid Value (iShares Russell Mid-Cap Value ETF); Small Growth (iShares Russell 2000 Growth ETF); Small Value (iShares Russell 2000 Value ETF); Intl Equity (iShares MSCI EAFE ETF); Emg Markets (iShares MSCI Emerging Markets ETF); and Real Estate (iShares US Real Estate ETF). The return displayed as “Allocation” is a weighted average of the ETF proxies shown as represented by 24% US Bonds, 10% International Bonds, 6% High Yield Bonds, 13.8% Large Growth, 13.8% Large Value, 3.6% Mid Growth, 3.6% Mid Value, 1.2% Small Growth, 1.2% Small Value, 16.8% International Stock, 4.2% Emerging Markets, 1.8% Real Estate.
* The term basis points (bps) refers to a common unit of measure for interest rates and other percentages in finance. One basis point is equal to 0.01%. Bond prices and bond yields are inversely related. As the price of a bond goes up, the yield decreases.