Weekly Market Update – April 3, 2026

Quick Takes

• U.S. stocks finally caught a break last week, posting their first weekly gains in six weeks, even as rising oil prices and geopolitical uncertainty kept investors on edge. Stronger-than-expected economic data helped steady markets. 
• U.S. equity markets were closed for Good Friday, and gains were solid across the board for global stocks and bonds. For the week the Nasdaq was up +4.4%, the S&P 500 gained +3.4%, and the small-cap Russell 2000 rose +3.3%. Developed and emerging international stocks also rose. Domestic and international bonds also saw positive total returns.
• Capital markets were buoyed by strong economic data that included the strongest U.S. manufacturing activity since 2022, nonfarm payrolls growth that smashed expectations, better-than-expected Consumer Confidence, and retail sales that beat Wall Street forecasts.

Source: Bloomberg. Data as of April 3, 2026.
Price Returns for Equity, Total Returns for Bonds.
* The term basis points (bps) refers to a common unit of measure for interest rates and other percentages in finance. One basis point is equal to 0.01%. Bond prices and bond yields are inversely related. As the price of a bond goes up, the yield decreases.

Jobs and manufacturing reports help stocks rise despite continued oil pressure and global tensions

U.S. stocks finally caught a break last week, posting their first weekly gains in six weeks, even as rising oil prices and geopolitical uncertainty kept investors on edge. Stronger-than-expected economic data helped steady markets, while mixed signals from Washington on U.S. involvement in Iran drove sharp swings in energy prices and day‑to‑day market sentiment.  Below is a look at how the week played out across U.S. stocks, international markets, bonds, and the broader economy.

U.S. Stocks: A much‑needed rebound

Wall Street ended the week higher, buoyed by solid economic data and hopes that geopolitical tensions might ease, even if only temporarily. After a weak start on Monday, stocks rallied sharply on Tuesday and Wednesday when President Donald Trump suggested the U.S. could be scaling back its military involvement in Iran.

That optimism faded somewhat after a Wednesday night address from the president failed to include a clear timeline for de-escalation. Oil prices jumped again, briefly weighing on stocks early Thursday. By the end of the day, however, the major indexes recovered, and with markets closed Friday for Good Friday, gains were locked in.

For the week:

• Nasdaq Composite: +4.4%, its best week since November
• S&P 500: +3.4%, ends a five-week losing streak
• Russell 2000 (small caps): +3.3%, its best week since early January

Despite the rally, investor nerves remain frayed. Volatility stayed elevated, with futures tied to the Cboe Volatility Index (VIX) holding near 25.2, well above levels typically associated with calm markets. Adding to the anxiety, oil prices surged throughout the week, hitting an intraday high of $113.97 per barrel on Thursday.

International Stocks: Gains, but lagging the U.S.

Overseas markets also finished higher, though they generally trailed their U.S. counterparts.

Developed-market stocks, tracked by the MSCI EAFE Index, rose +2.8%, snapping a four-week losing streak. European markets led the way:

• Italy: +5.3%
• Spain: +4.6%
• United Kingdom: +4.2%

Japan was a notable laggard, edging up just +0.3%. Investors there were cautious due to Japan’s heavy dependence on Middle Eastern oil, which makes its economy particularly vulnerable to spikes in energy prices.

Emerging markets struggled more. The MSCI Emerging Markets Index gained just +0.3%, though that was still enough to end a four-week slide. Taiwan, the index’s largest country weight, fell -1.4% for the week. China continued to weigh heavily on emerging-market performance, slipping -0.03% after declines of -1.2% and -2.8% in the prior two weeks. The MSCI China Index has now been negative in eight of the past nine weeks.

Meanwhile, the U.S. dollar strengthened against most major developed-market currencies, adding another headwind for international investments.

Bonds: Yields fall, but returns disappoint

U.S. Treasury bonds rallied as yields moved lower, a positive sign for fixed-income investors seeking safety amid market uncertainty.

• 10-year Treasury yield: Fell -9 basis points to 4.34%
• 2-year Treasury yield: Dropped -7 basis points to 3.84%

Bond prices move in the opposite direction of yields, so falling yields generally mean higher prices. Support for bonds came in part from comments by Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell, who noted that the Fed’s tools have limited impact on supply-driven shocks such as disruptions in oil markets.

With the Treasury rally, broader bond markets had their best week since February and ended a four-week losing streak. The Bloomberg US Aggregate Bond Index was up +0.8%. High Yield bonds had their best week since last April, with the Bloomberg US High Yield gaining +1.2%. International bonds fared even better, despite the rise in the U.S. dollar. The Bloomberg Global Aggregate ex-USD Index had a total return of +0.8% for the week, offsetting the prior week’s loss.

Economics: Strong data, cautious Fed

Economic data was broadly positive and helped underpin the stock market’s rebound.

• Jobs: U.S. nonfarm payrolls rose by 178,000 in March, far above expectations of 65,000 and a sharp rebound from a revised decline of -133,000 in February. The unemployment rate edged down to 4.3%.
• Manufacturing: The March ISM Manufacturing PMI climbed to 52.7%, its highest level since August 2022, signaling continued expansion.
• Consumers: The Conference Board’s Consumer Confidence Index rose to 91.8 in March, handily beating expectations.
• Retail sales: February sales jumped 0.6%, stronger than forecast.

Powell struck a careful tone on inflation, saying the Fed typically looks through oil price spikes as long as inflation expectations remain anchored. However, he also warned that repeated supply shocks could eventually lead consumers and businesses to expect higher inflation.

Those comments reassured investors that the Federal Reserve is unlikely to rush into raising interest rates, even if inflation edges higher in the near term.

The Bottom Line

Markets enjoyed a relief rally powered by robust economic data, but elevated oil prices, lingering volatility, and geopolitical risks suggest the ride could remain bumpy in the weeks ahead.

Chart of the Week

The March Employment Situation Report was a shocker, with a huge upside surprise following the dismal February report. U.S. employers reported Nonfarm Payrolls growth of +178,000 for the month, far above the +65,000 new payrolls Wall Street expected and up sharply from February’s disappointing -133,000 jobs lost (which was revised lower from the originally reported -92,000). That is the best month for jobs growth since December 2024. The advance in payrolls was led by Healthcare (+90,000), which recovered after the resolution of the strike by Kaiser Permanente workers in California and Hawaii. But the report showed gains were widespread across industries, with a measure of the breadth of hiring rising to the highest level in more than two years.  Leisure and hospitality (+44,000) and Construction (+26,000) payrolls rose following declines in February, possibly reflecting a weather-related snapback. Hiring in Manufacturing (+15,000) was strongest since the end of 2023. On the downside, the Federal Government saw a loss of -18,000 jobs, while Financial Activities lost -15,000. Importantly, Private-Sector Jobs jumped by +186,000, far above estimates for +78,000, though February private sector payrolls were revised lower to -129,000 from -86,000 originally reported. The Unemployment Rate ticked down to +4.3% from +4.4% in February (unrevised), where it was expected to stay. However, the decline in the unemployment rate primarily resulted from the labor force shrinking nearly -400,000 people, meaning fewer Americans were counted as unemployed. The Labor-Force Participation Rate, which is the share of Americans working or looking for work, slipped to 61.9% from an unrevised 62.0%, which is its lowest level since the fall of 2021. The Employment-Population Ratio decreased to 59.3% from 59.4% the prior month. Average Hourly Earnings (AHE) rose +0.2% versus an unrevised +0.4% in February, which was below expectations for a +0.3% rise. On an annual basis, AHE were up +3.5%, below expectations for +3.7%, down from the +3.8% annual rate the prior month (unrevised), and the lowest yearly rate in nearly five years. The Fed would like to see wage growth slow to around +3% annually or less, a level it sees as consistent with low inflation. Average Weekly Hours Worked ticked down to 34.2 hours from 34.3 the prior month, which is where they were forecasted to remain. The bottom line is the March employment report was stellar. All told, the economy is creating an average of +15,000 jobs each month over the past 6 months, and although that is a big downshift from the same period a year earlier, when it was adding +78,000 jobs on average each month, the composition of jobs is a stark contrast. The jobs being added this year are primarily private sector jobs, versus last year when they were primarily government jobs.

Hiring Defied Expectations in March with 178,000 New Jobs

Monthly nonfarm payrolls, change from a month earlier

Source: Labor Department, The Wall Street Journal.

The Week Ahead

Wall Street heads into the new week with investors focused on the Fed, inflation data, and GDP. The economic calendar is slow to start the week with only the ISM Services Index on Monday, and Durable and Capital Goods Orders plus Consumer Credit on Tuesday. The spotlight will be on the Fed Wednesday afternoon when they release their minutes from the last FOMC meeting. GDP and the PCE index are due Thursday, but the big focus will be the March Consumer Price Index on Friday. Economists expect core CPI to hold at 2.5% annually, making the data critical for shaping expectations around Federal Reserve policy. The April preliminary Consumer Sentiment Index from the University of Michigan is also due Friday.

Did You Know?

FINANCIALS FALTER – The S&P 500 Financials sector remains the worst-performing sector in the S&P 500 this year, with a -10% drop through late March. To date, 2026 has seen the fifth-worst start to a year for Financials since 1990; as of March 25, just 3% of the sector’s 76 members were above their 50-day moving averages. (Source: Bespoke)

ENERGY GUSHER – On March 24, the S&P 500 Energy sector traded more than +30% above its 200-day moving average — a level it has traded at on just 1% of days since 1990. The only other times the sector’s 200-DMA spread exceeded +30% was in the first half of 2021, when the economy started recovering from COVID, and the first half of 2022 during the Russia–Ukraine war. (Source: Bespoke)

GAMBLING PROBLEMS – The American Gaming Association estimates that legal betting on this year’s men’s and women’s NCAA basketball tournaments will exceed $3 billion, up 54% from three years ago. An analysis from UCLA found that in states where betting is legal, the odds of filing for bankruptcy increased by more than +25%. (Source: CNBC)

This Week in History

GOLDEN APPLE – The traditional gift for a 50th anniversary is gold, symbolizing the strength and longevity of a relationship – a tradition dating back to the 1500s in Germanic countries. 50 years ago on April 1, 1976, Apple Computer was founded in a small garage in Los Altos, California. Apple now boasts a $3.7 trillion market value. (Source: The Wall Street Journal)

Economic Review

• The Conference Board Consumer Confidence Index increased to 91.8 in March from a downwardly revised 91.0 in February (originally 91.2). That was far better than Wall Street expectations to come in at 87.9. In the same period a year ago, the index stood at 93.9. The Present Situation gauge rose to 123.3 from 118.7 the prior month (revised sharply lower from 120.0). The Expectations gauge — which reflects consumers’ six-month outlook — dipped to 70.9 from an upwardly revised 72.6 (originally 72.0). Sustained levels below 80 on the expectations index can signal a recession within the next year, while in good times the index can top 120 or more.  Importantly, the March improvement doesn’t convey any material concern among consumers about the Iran war yet.
• The Institute for Supply Management’s (ISM) Manufacturing PMI improved to 52.7% in March, above expectations for 52.3%, up from 52.4% the prior month (unrevised), and the best level since August 2022. That is now three straight months solidly above 50%, following 11 consecutive months below 50.0% (above 50% indicate economic expansion, levels below 50% indicate contraction). New Orders, a sign of future demand, slipped to 53.5% from 55.8% the prior month. The Production index rose to 55.1% from 53.5% in February. The New Export Orders index slipped into contraction at 49.9% from 50.3%. The Employment component was little changed at 48.7% versus 48.8% the previous month. The downside of the report came from the inflationary aspect as the Prices index surged to 78.3% from 70.5% the prior month, which is the highest level since June 2022. The key takeaway from the report is that manufacturing activity continues a surprisingly strong resurgence, but the surge in the Prices index will fuel concerns about stubborn inflation. 
• The final reading for the S&P Global US Manufacturing PMI increased to 52.3 in March from 51.6 in February, slightly below the earlier flash estimate of 52.4 two weeks ago. It still signaled expansion for the seventh consecutive month. Higher Output (Production) and New Orders helped to support the PMI in March. In both instances, growth rates were solid, but growth was mainly domestically driven. International sales continued to decline as tariffs and shipping challenges weighed on foreign demand. Employment was broadly unchanged as firms were a little more cautious when it came to hiring. The war in the Middle East had a noticeable impact on Input Prices during March, with inflation picking up to its highest level since last August. Manufacturers reported that fuel prices had increased and tariffs also continued to push up costs (most notably for aluminum and steel). Wherever possible, firms increased their own charges in response to greater input costs. Output Prices rose at a noticeably quicker rate in March, with inflation reaching its highest in seven months.
• The S&P Global US Services PMI slipped into contraction in March, falling to 49.8 from 51.7 the prior month. That was a big downward revision from the 51.1 preliminary ‘flash’ reading two weeks ago and marks the first sub-50 reading since January 2023. The Business Activity Index shifted from expansion to contraction as consumer–facing services showed the sharpest slowdown, reflecting reduced discretionary demand. New Business (New Orders) rose at the weakest pace since April 2024 as firms cited lower client confidence and geopolitical uncertainty as key drags. Backlogs of Work fell for a second consecutive month, indicating diminishing pipeline strength and reduced capacity pressure consistent with cooling demand and delayed client decisions. There was a marginal decline in Employment growth, its first net decline since December 2025, as hiring freezes and selective layoffs reflected cost–containment strategies. Inflationary pressures in the service sector accelerated sharply, as Input Costs reached the highest level of 2026, with energy costs the dominant factor. Meanwhile, Output Prices rose to an eight–month high as firms passed through higher fuel, transport, and wage costs. Business Confidence fell to a five–month low with respondents citing rising living costs, energy–driven inflation risks, and heightened geopolitical uncertainty.
• The resulting S&P Global US Composite PMI (the combination of the Manufacturing and Services PMIs) posted 50.3 in March, consistent with only marginal growth in private sector activity. The index was down from 51.9 in February, and the weakest since September 2023. The contraction in service sector activity detracted from the stronger uptick in manufacturing output. Growth in New Orders eased to a three-month low, while Business Confidence in the coming 12 months was the most subdued since last October. In turn, private sector Employment fell for the first time in just over a year. Input Prices accelerated to the highest seen in 2026, while Output Prices also rose at an accelerating pace.
• The Commerce Department reported that US Retail Sales for February jumped +0.6%, beating Wall Street expectations for +0.5%, and up sharply from -0.1% the prior month (revised higher from -0.2%). Retail sales represent about one-third of all consumer spending and offer clues on the strength of the economy. Retail Sales Ex-Autos were up +0.5%, beating expectations for +0.3% and up from a flat reading the prior month. Sales Ex-Autos and Gas were up +0.4%, above expectations for a +0.3% rise and up from the prior month’s +0.2% gain (after being revised down from +0.3%). The Control Group, a figure used to calculate Gross Domestic Product (GDP), rose +0.5%, above expectations for +0.3% and up from +0.2% the prior month (revised lower from +0.3%). The bottom line is that retail sales activity showed solid spending across most kinds of retail business after winter storms disrupted sales in January. 
• The Bureau of Labor Statistics reported the Job Openings Labor Turnover Survey (JOLTS) showed that Job Openings fell to 6.882 million in February, the slowest since 2020, and below Wall Street estimates for 6.890 million. That was down from 7.240 million the prior month, which was the highest since May after it was revised higher from 6.946 million. The pullback in openings was driven by declines in accommodation and food services, health care and social assistance, and manufacturing. After a pickup in openings at the start of the year, the slowdown in hiring and vacancies indicates employers are proceeding cautiously after a year of near-zero job growth. The Hiring Rate slipped to 3.1 from 3.4 the month before, which is its lowest level since April 2020.  It typically ranges from 3.7% to 4.0% in a strong economy. Declines were led by pullbacks in construction and leisure and hospitality, which may have partly reflected severe winter weather during the month. Business and professional services hiring also dropped. The Number of People Quitting Jobs was 2.974 million, down from 3.131 million the prior month (revised down from 3.137 million). The record was 4.5 million job quitters in late 2021. The Quits Rate ticked down to 1.9% from an unrevised 2.0% the prior month, which is where it was expected to remain. That matched the lowest level since 2020 and suggests people are less confident in their ability to find a new position. The Layoffs Rate was up a tick to 1.1% from 1.0%, remaining below the 1.4% annual average from 2010 to 2019. Some economists have questioned the reliability of the JOLTS data, in part due to the survey’s low response rate and sometimes sizable revisions. Another index by job-posting site Indeed, which is reported on a daily basis, showed openings picked up in February before falling sharply in March as the Iran war introduced more uncertainty about the economy.
• The Texas Manufacturing Outlook Survey declined in March, with the General Business Activity falling to -0.2, down from an unrevised +0.2 the prior month, which was the first positive value since July. That is well below expectation for a reading of +2.0. Every sub-index fell in March except for the two Prices indexes and Capital Expenditures. Unfilled Orders, Finished Goods Inventories, and Employment each turned negative in March and are the only negative components (positive readings indicate expansion, negative readings indicate contraction). New Orders, Shipments, and Production all continued to rise, though at a slower pace. The Employment index dipped -0.7 points to +7.5, while the Hours Worked improved to +6.1 from +0.7. Prices Paid was up +1.0 to +32.7 while Prices Received ticked up +0.5 points to +18.4. The Outlook Uncertainty index rose sharply to +26.0 from +6.5. Prices paid for raw materials remained a major issue. The Texas Service Sector General Business Activity ticked down to -3.2 from +2.7 the prior month (unrevised). The Texas Service Sector Company Outlook improved +7.7 points to +2.7.
• The Chicago Purchasing Managers Index (PMI), a barometer for the region’s business and manufacturing conditions (also known as the Chicago Business Barometer), declined to 52.8 in March from an unrevised 57.7 in February. That was well short of Wall Street expectations for a 55.0 reading, breaking three consecutive increases, but still in expansion territory (readings below the 50 level indicate contraction). Five components rose, unchanged from the prior month. The drop was driven by decreases in Employment, Production, and New Orders, while increases in Order Backlogs and Supplier Deliveries provided some offset. Production fell -9.3 points. Employment weakened by -12.8 points, now back in contractionary territory after one month above 50. However, the index remains considerably above levels seen at the end of 2025. New Orders shed -7.8 points, more than unwinding February’s rise but still above 50 for the third consecutive month. Order Backlogs grew +6.4 points and is now at its highest since December 2022. Supplier Deliveries rose +4.9 to the highest level since December 2024. Prices Paid rose +3.4 points, now at the highest level since last December as respondents noted that metals were already driving cost increases, and that geopolitical tensions have driven up other costs too.
• According to the US Census Bureau, the US Trade Deficit for February increased less than expected to -$57.4 billion from -$54.7 billion in January (revised lower from -$54.5 billion), a +4.9% change. That was better than the -$60.6 billion deficit Wall Street expected. Smaller trade deficits help contribute to economic growth, while larger deficits inhibit growth. Exports were $314.8 billion, a +$12.7 billion increase from the prior month (+4.2%) and a new all-time high. Imports were $372.1 billion, or +15.2 billion more than January (+4.3%). Adjusted for inflation, the real goods deficit increased by +$500 million to -$83.5 billion. Overall, the narrower than projected deficit for the first two months of the year is -55% smaller than the same period in 2025, when firms were rushing to import goods ahead of tariffs.
• According to the S&P Cotality Case-Shiller 20-City Home Price Index, US housing prices rose by +0.16% in January, down from a positively revised +0.50% the prior month (originally +0.47%). That was below expectations for a +0.35% gain. This was the sixth month of price gains following five months of declines. Of the 20 cities tracked by the index, only five rose month-over-month, with Miami up the most (+0.43%), followed by Charlotte (+0.24%), while Seattle (-0.59) and Atlanta (-0.45) fell the most. On a year-over-year (YoY) basis, the 20-city index was up +1.18%, below expectations for a +1.38% rise and down from a +1.43% annual increase the month before (revised higher from +1.38%). New York reported the highest annual gain (+4.93%), followed by Chicago (+4.63%), while Tampa extended its place as the lowest annual return (-2.54%), with Denver the next worst (-2.05%).
• The competing Federal Housing Finance Agency (FHFA) House Price Index (HPI) also showed US home prices continuing to rise, but at a slower pace, up +0.1% in January, down from the +0.3% increase the prior month (revised higher from +0.1%). The results were in line with Wall Street expectations. The government data showed home prices up +1.6% year-over-year, down from the prior month’s +1.8% annual rate. House prices were up in 6 of the 9 regions on a monthly basis, and 7 of 9 were up on an annual basis. The monthly changes ranged from -0.7% in the West South Central division to +1.7% in the East South Central division. The 12-month changes ranged from -0.8% in the West South Central division to +4.3% in the Middle Atlantic division.
• Weekly MBA Mortgage Applications sank -10.4% for the week ending March 27, after falling -10.5% and -10.9% the prior two weeks. The Purchase Index fell -2.6% after dropping -5.4% the prior week. The Refinance Index sank -17.3% after dropping -14.6% -18.5% the prior two weeks. The average 30-Year Mortgage Rate rose to 6.57% from 6.43% the prior week. That’s the highest level since August 29, 2025.
• Weekly Initial Jobless Claims were down -9,000 to 202,000 for the week ending March 28, which was better than expectations for 212,000. The prior week was revised higher to 211,000 from 210,000. The number of people already collecting unemployment claims (i.e., Continuing Claims) rose by +25,000 to 1,841,000 for the week ending March 21, which was worse than expectations for 1,837,000. The prior week’s reading was revised lower to 1,816,000 from 1,819,000.

Asset Class Performance

Source: Bloomberg.
Asset‐class performance is presented by using market returns from an exchange‐traded fund (ETF) proxy that best represents its respective broad asset class. Returns shown are net of fund fees for and do not necessarily represent performance of specific mutual funds and/or exchange-traded funds recommended by The Retirement Planning Group. The performance of those funds may be substantially different from the performance of the broad asset classes and to proxy ETFs represented here. US Bonds (iShares Core US Aggregate Bond ETF); High‐Yield Bond (iShares iBoxx $ High Yield Corporate Bond ETF); Intl Bonds (Vanguard Total International Bond ETF); Large Growth (iShares Russell 1000 Growth ETF); Large Value (iShares Russell 1000 Value ETF); Mid Growth (iShares Russell Mid-Cap Growth ETF); Mid Value (iShares Russell Mid-Cap Value ETF); Small Growth (iShares Russell 2000 Growth ETF); Small Value (iShares Russell 2000 Value ETF); Intl Equity (iShares MSCI EAFE ETF); Emg Markets (iShares MSCI Emerging Markets ETF); and Real Estate (iShares US Real Estate ETF). The return displayed as “Allocation” is a weighted average of the ETF proxies shown as represented by 24% US Bonds, 10% International Bonds, 6% High Yield Bonds, 13.8% Large Growth, 13.8% Large Value, 3.6% Mid Growth, 3.6% Mid Value, 1.2% Small Growth, 1.2% Small Value, 16.8% International Stock, 4.2% Emerging Markets, 1.8% Real Estate.
* The term basis points (bps) refers to a common unit of measure for interest rates and other percentages in finance. One basis point is equal to 0.01%. Bond prices and bond yields are inversely related. As the price of a bond goes up, the yield decreases.