Weekly Market Update – April 10, 2026

Quick Takes

• Investors found a reason to breathe a sigh of relief this week. Following President Trump’s announcement of a cease-fire with Iran, major global stock indices rallied, shaking off some of the heavy uncertainty that has loomed over global investors. 
• The tech-heavy Nasdaq Composite led the charge for U.S. equities, surging +4.7%. The S&P 500 followed with a +3.6% gain, and small-caps joined the party as the Russell 2000 added +4.0%. Overseas, the MSCI EAFE gained +4.3% and Emerging Markets jumped +7.4%.
• The yield on the 10-year Treasury note dipped slightly to 4.32%, while the 2-year yield fell to 3.80%. The Bloomberg U.S. Aggregate Bond Index returned +0.3% while international bonds outperformed as the Bloomberg Global Aggregate ex-U.S. Index returned +1.3%.

Source: Bloomberg. Data as of April 10, 2026.
Price Returns for Equity, Total Returns for Bonds.
* The term basis points (bps) refers to a common unit of measure for interest rates and other percentages in finance. One basis point is equal to 0.01%. Bond prices and bond yields are inversely related. As the price of a bond goes up, the yield decreases.

Stocks Surge as Oil Sinks and Core Inflation Holds Steady

Investors found a reason to breathe a sigh of relief this week. Following President Trump’s announcement of a cease-fire with Iran, major global stock indices rallied, shaking off some of the heavy uncertainty that has loomed over global investors. While a late-week inflation report took some steam out of the Friday session, the weekly totals painted a picture of a resilient market finding its footing. Below is a look at how the week played out across U.S. stocks, international markets, bonds, and the broader economy.

U.S. Stocks: Geopolitical Hope and AI Enthusiasm Drives Massive Gains

Wall Street enjoyed its best week since November, largely fueled by a “double win” of easing Middle East tensions and a relentless appetite for technology.

• Index Performance: The tech-heavy Nasdaq Composite led the charge, surging +4.7%. The S&P 500 followed with a +3.6% gain, and small-caps joined the party as the Russell 2000 added +4.0%.
• Sector Winners and Losers: Information Technology, Communication Services, and Consumer Discretionary sectors were the primary engines of growth. The Energy sector was the lone outlier, posting negative returns as oil prices cratered.
• The Drivers: Beyond the Iran cease-fire, artificial intelligence (AI) remained a dominant narrative. Investors poured capital into semiconductor and infrastructure stocks amid enthusiasm for new AI model launches. Additionally, analysts at Wolfe Research noted that a 14% year-over-year increase in tax refunds is helping consumers absorb the impact of high energy costs.

International Stocks: A Global Surge, Helped by a Declining Dollar

Overseas markets didn’t just follow the U.S. lead—they outpaced it. A weakening U.S. dollar, which fell -1.4%, provided a boost to the value of international assets.

• Developed Markets: The MSCI EAFE Index gained +4.3%. European markets were particularly strong, with Spain, France, and Italy all jumping more than +5%. Japan also saw its best performance since February, rising +3.1%.
• Emerging Markets: This was the standout story of the week. The MSCI Emerging Markets Index soared +7.4%, its biggest weekly leap since mid-2020.
• Energy and Chips: South Korea (+12.3%) and Taiwan (+10.2%) benefited from a “perfect storm.” As major energy importers and semiconductor exporters, they gained from both the drop in oil prices and the global rebound in tech demand.

Bonds: A Second Straight Steady Week

The fixed-income market didn’t experience the fireworks that equities saw, they rarely do, but they did see decent gains for a second straight week. Investors are currently pricing in very low odds of a Federal Reserve interest rate cut in April or June, but fears of a rate hike have receded.

• Treasury Yields: The yield on the 10-year Treasury note dipped slightly to 4.32%, while the 2-year yield fell to 3.80%. The 30-year yield remained unchanged at 4.91%.
• Total Returns: The Bloomberg U.S. Aggregate Bond Index returned a +0.3%, while international bonds outperformed their domestic counterparts, as the Bloomberg Global Aggregate ex-U.S. Index returned +1.3%.

Economics and Policy: Inflation and Aftermath of the War

While the cease-fire provided a spark, the underlying economic data remains a mixed bag of persistent inflation and cooling growth.

• The Oil Crater: Energy prices saw their steepest weekly slide since 2020. U.S. West Texas Intermediate (WTI) plunged -13.4% to settle at $96.57 a barrel. In response to the shift in global supply, U.S. crude exports are expected to hit a record 5.2 million barrels per day in April.
• Inflation Realities: Friday’s Consumer Price Index (CPI) showed prices rose +0.9% for the month and +3.3% year-over-year. While this matched Wall Street’s expectations, it served as a sobering reminder that inflation pressures persist.
• The Fed’s Stance: Minutes from the March Federal Reserve meeting revealed a divided committee. While some officials suggested further cooling in the labor market could lead to rate cuts, others warned that high inflation might actually require rate increases.
• Consumer Health: The University of Michigan’s preliminary index of consumer sentiment hit a record low in April, and the final estimate for Q4 GDP growth was revised down to a meager +0.5%.

The Bottom Line

Markets found relief in geopolitical hopes and AI optimism, even as inflation and sentiment data reminded investors that the economic recovery remains uneven. For now, falling oil prices and resilient consumer spending are keeping the rally alive—but volatility may return as politicians and policymakers weigh their next moves.

Chart of the Week

The rate of inflation for consumer goods and services was in line with Wall Street expectations in March, with the headline Consumer Price Index (CPI) up +0.9% for the month, up sharply from an unrevised +0.3% rise in February. Year-over-year (YoY), CPI was +3.3%, a tick below expectations to rise +3.4%, but up sharply from the unrevised +2.4% annual rate in February. Core CPI, which excludes the more volatile food and energy prices, increased a modest +0.2% for the month, under expectations for a +0.3% increase and unchanged from the prior month. YoY Core CPI was +2.6%, again a bit below expectations to rise +2.7% and up from +2.6% from the prior month’s annual rate. The Energy index was up +10.9% for the month and +12.5% for the year, reflecting the spike in oil prices from the Iran conflict. The Food index was unchanged for the month (0.0%) and was up +2.7% for the year, which was a deceleration from the prior month’s +0.4% monthly rate and +3.1% annual rate. Also good news, the Shelter component, which is about one-third of the CPI weighting, was little changed at +0.3% for the month and at +3.0% for the year. For a second straight month, there was a notable decline in the Used Cars and Trucks index, which was down -0.4% month-over-month and down -3.2% year-over-year, matching the prior month declines. The bottom line is that Headline CPI was driven by the spike in energy prices, but Core CPI levels were subdued.

Consumer Prices Rose +3.3% in March, as Energy Prices Spiked

 U.S. Consumer Price Index (CPI), monthly % change (Jan. 2021–March 2026)

Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics, CNBC.

The Week Ahead

Negotiations to the end of the war in Iran concluded without any meaningful headway, leaving investors watching for what the next steps will be this week. With those geopolitical developments and energy markets in focus, OPEC’s monthly report on Monday may command more attention than usual. Regarding the usual economic data points this week, the schedule is relatively light with the Producer Price Index (PPI) on Tuesday the headline report. Wholesale inflation was already running hot before the Iran war, and rising oil prices have added to the pricing pressure. On Wednesday, more pricing data is due with Import and Export Prices. Housing data is prevalent with Existing Home Sales on Monday, as well as weekly MBA Mortgage Applications and homebuilder confidence (NAHB Housing Market Index) on Wednesday. Additionally, national Industrial Production and Capacity Utilization for March is reported Thursday. There are no major reports on Friday.

The Federal Reserve’s Beige Book will also be released on Wednesday and will provide a snapshot of economic conditions across regions. Manufacturing activity has been solid recently, and regional Federal Reserve banks for NY and Philadelphia will report their district surveys for April on Wednesday and Thursday respectively. There will be a steady stream of Fed speakers throughout the week, including John Williams and Neel Kashkari.

Wall Street also must contend with the start of first-quarter earnings season. Goldman Sachs Group releases quarterly results on Monday, followed by BlackRock, Citigroup, JPMorgan Chase, and Wells Fargo on Tuesday. Bank of America, Morgan Stanley, and PNC Financial Services Group announce earnings on Wednesday, and Charles Schwab and U.S. Bancorp follow suit on Thursday. Beyond the Financials sector, results from Taiwan Semiconductor, Netflix, and PepsiCo will offer insight into global demand, tech spending, and consumer trends.

Did You Know?

TRILLION-DOLLAR COMPANIES TRAILED – In the first quarter, the nine S&P 500 stocks with market capitalizations above $1 trillion declined by an average of -11.2%. All nine trillion-dollar stocks underperformed the S&P 500’s decline of -4.6%, while the remaining 491 stocks averaged a gain of +1.0%. (Source: Bespoke)

REFUND BOOST – Through March 20, the average tax refund for individual filers in the 2025 tax season was $3,571, a +10.9% increase from $3,221 as of March 21 last year. This data comprises 79 million individual returns out of the 164 million that the IRS expects to process this season. (Source: IRS)

EARNINGS UNFAZED – From the start of the Iran war through March 27, earnings expectations for the S&P 500 over the next 12 months increased by +3.6% — the largest four-week increase in more than five years. The +8.8% increase in earnings estimates for Technology was the sector’s largest four-week increase since 1995. (Source: The Wall Street Journal)

This Week in History

EARLY INSIDER TRADING – On April 7, 1720, King George I, who appears to have been bribed with secret grants of stock and insider information, signed the South Sea Bill, granting virtual monopoly powers of financing to the South Sea Co. The stock closed the day at £335, up from less than £100 a few weeks earlier. By year-end, many investors had lost -80% of their money. (Source: The Wall Street Journal)

Economic Review

• The preliminary reading of the University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index plunged to 47.6 in April from a final reading of 53.3 the prior month, badly missing expectations for a decline to 51.5. If it holds it will be the lowest reading on record for the index, which began in 1978. In the same period a year ago, the index stood at 52.2. The Current Economic Conditions component fell to 50.1 from 55.8 the prior month, below expectations to fall to 53.4. The Consumer Expectations component dropped to 46.1 from 51.7 the prior month, short of expectations to come in at 50.2. One-year inflation expectations surged to 4.8%, above expectations to come in at 4.2%. The five-year inflation expectations was up a bit to 3.4%, up from 3.2% the prior month, and in line with expectations. A key point is that the military action in Iran was the big driver in sentiment falling and inflation expectations rising.
• The ISM Services PMI was 54.0 in March, down from 56.1% the prior month (unrevised). That is the 21st consecutive month in expansion but missed expectations to come in at 54.9%. Service-oriented companies, such as restaurants and retailers, employ the majority of Americans. To be sure, this report was mixed. The good: New Orders jumped to 60.6% from 58.6% the prior month, the fastest pace in four years, Supplier Deliveries rose to 56.2% from 53.9%, and Imports rose to 55.2% from 51.8%. The bad: the Backlog of Orders index fell to 53.6% from 55.9%, and Inventories fell to 54.8% from 56.4%. The ugly: the Production component fell to 53.9% from 59.9%, Employment sank to 45.2% from 51.8%, its lowest since December 2023, and the Prices index jumped to 70.7% from 63.0%, which marks the largest one-month increase in 13 years and is the sixteenth consecutive month above 60%. Overall, the report showed that growth in the important service sector economy remained in expansion, but Employment and Prices are decidedly trending in the wrong directions. Those trends will be headwinds to growth if they don’t reverse before long.   
• The US Treasury Department recorded a Federal Budget Deficit of -$164.1 billion in March, worse than expectations of -$153.3 billion, and wider than the $160.5 billion deficit recorded in March 2025. Receipts rose +4.7% (to $384.9 billion) on a year-ago basis, while Outlays rose 2.2% (to $549.0 billion). Individual Income Taxes ($189 billion) were the largest source of receipts in February, followed by Social Insurance & Retirement Receipts ($152 billion). Customs duties brought in $22 billion, bringing the fiscal year-to-date total to $166 billion. The largest outlays by function were Social Security ($139 billion), Net Interest ($94 billion), Health ($90 billion), and National Defense ($69 billion). The fiscal year-to-date deficit is $1.169 trillion versus $1.564 trillion in the same period a year ago. The budget deficit over the last 12 months is -$1.633 trillion. 
• The Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) left the federal funds rate unchanged at 3.5% to 3.75% at the March meeting, marking consecutive meetings without a move. There was one dissent for a 25-basis point cut, but the majority of policymakers have reduced their expectations for easing in 2026. Minutes from March’s meeting revealed the FOMC is concerned with both elevated inflation and unemployment risks, given the disruption in energy markets and burst in prices.
• The cost of goods and services rose +0.4% in February, matching expectations and a tick up from +0.3% the previous month (unrevised). For the year, the Personal Consumption Expenditure (PCE) Deflator (aka PCE Price Index) was up +2.8%, matching expectations and unchanged from the prior month (unrevised). The Core PCE Price Index, which excludes food and energy and is the Fed’s preferred inflation gauge, was up +0.4% for the month, matching expectations and the prior month’s unrevised reading. Year-over-year, the Core-PCE Price Index was up +3.0%, in line with expectations and down from +3.1% (unrevised) the prior month. The key takeaway from the report is that the Core PCE Price Index, the Fed’s preferred inflation gauge, decreased to +3.0%, but that was before the Iran war and isn’t likely to influence the Fed.
• Personal Income fell -0.1% in February, below expectations to dip to +0.3% from the unrevised +0.4% rise the prior month. Real Disposable Income was down -0.5% month-over-month, after rising +0.6% the prior month. Personal Spending rose +0.5% in February, a tick below expectations for +0.6% but up from +0.3% prior month (after it was revised down from +0.4%). After adjusting for inflation, Real Personal Spending was +0.1% for the month, below expectations to be +0.2% but up from the prior month’s flat (0.0%) reading (revised lower from +0.1%). The Personal Savings Rate, as a percentage of disposable personal income, declined to +4.0% from +4.5% the previous month.
• The Census Bureau reported preliminary Durable Goods Orders for long-lasting items (such as televisions, appliances, and transportation equipment) decreased -1.4% in February, following a downwardly revised -0.5% drop (from 0.0%) the prior month. That was short of Wall Street expectations to -1.2% decline. Durable Goods Orders Excluding Transportation were up +0.8%, above expectations for a +0.5% reading and the prior month’s +0.3% increase (revised down from +0.4%). The important Core Capital Goods Orders (capital goods excluding volatile sectors like transportation and defense), a proxy for business spending, was up +0.6%, above expectations for a +0.5% reading, and up sharply from the -0.4% decrease the prior month (revised down from +0.1%). Core Capital Goods Shipments, which are factored into GDP, jumped +0.9%, beating expectations for a +0.4% gain and the upwardly revised flat reading the month before (originally -0.1%). The bottom line is that the headline number was disappointing, but apart from the transportation weakness, the rest of the report was very positive. Order activity was healthy, highlighted by the +0.6% increase in business spending.
• The Census Bureau reported Wholesale Inventories rose +0.8% to $919.6 billion in February, smashing expectations for a -0.1% drop and sharply higher than the -0.3% drop the prior month (revised higher from -0.5%). Year-over-Year (YoY) inventories were up +1.0%, down from the +2.5% annual rate the prior month. That is well below the typical +4% to +6% annual increase in strong economies. Inventories are goods produced for sale that have not been sold yet. Wholesale Trade Sales rose +2.7% to $751.9 billion, after rising +1.1% the prior month (revised up from +0.5%), and easily beat expectations for a +0.6% increase. YoY sales were up +7.5%, up from the +5.5% annual rate the prior month. Wholesale inventories data isn’t adjusted for inflation. The Inventory-to-Sales Ratio ticked down to 1.25 months from 1.27 months. The ratio reflects how long it would take a company to sell all the goods sitting on warehouse shelves.  
• Outstanding U.S. Consumer Credit increased by $9.48 billion in January (+2.2%), below expectations for a +$10.25 billion increase, but up from $7.67 billion (+1.8%) the prior month (revised up from the initially reported +$8.05 billion). Growth for revolving credit, such as credit cards, inched up +$0.7 billion (+0.6%) for the month, following a +$2.6 billion (+2.8%) increase the previous month. Nonrevolving credit, which tends to be much less volatile than revolving credit and includes auto as well as school loans, jumped +$8.8 billion following the prior month’s +$5.1 billion increase. The data from the Federal Reserve is not adjusted for inflation and does not include mortgage loans, which is the largest category of household debt.
• The Commerce Department reported that Factory Orders were flat (0.0%) in February, beating expectations to fall -0.2% and unchanged from the prior month (after being revised lower from +0.1%). In contrast, Factory Orders Excluding Transportation were up +1.2%, up from +0.5% the prior month after being revised higher from +0.4% and beating expectations to rise +0.4%. The final read for February Durable Goods Orders for long-lasting items such as televisions, appliances, and transportation equipment was -1.3%, a bit better than expectations to fall -1.4%, which is where they were in the advance report two weeks earlier. That followed a -0.4% drop the prior month. Durable Goods Orders Excluding Transportation were up +0.9%, up a tick from the advance reading of +0.8% and up from the prior month’s +0.3% rise. The important Core Capital Goods Orders (capital goods excluding volatile sectors like transportation and defense), a proxy for business spending, was up +0.7%, up from the expected +0.6% advance reading and flat (0.0%) reading the prior month.  Core Capital Goods Shipments, which are factored into GDP, rose +0.1%, up from +0.9% in the advance reading and the -0.1% dip the month before. The inventory-to-shipments ratio was 1.53 compared to 1.55 the month before. A key takeaway from the report is that factory orders were quite strong when the volatile transportation component was excluded.
• The U.S. economy was slower than previously estimated in the fourth quarter of 2025. The third and final estimate of real Gross Domestic Product (GDP) for Q4 2025 was revised lower to just +0.5% from the previous estimate of +0.7% on March 13, and the initial estimate of +1.4% February 20. Wall Street was expecting it to remain at the prior estimate of +0.7%. The 2025 full-year estimate held at +2.1%. The downward revision came primarily to lower investment than previously indicated. Gross private domestic investment was up +2.3% versus +3.3% in the second estimate and a flat reading in Q3. Gross private domestic investment contributed +0.40 percentage points to growth in the fourth quarter. A key metric for demand, called Real Final Sales to Private Domestic Purchasers, was cut to a +1.8% growth rate from +1.9% in the prior estimate, and is down from +2.9% in Q3. Consumer spending, measured by Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE), is the main engine of the economy and it increased +1.9% in Q4, down from +2.0% in the previous estimate, and versus +3.5% in Q3 and +2.5% in Q2. The PCE component contributed +1.30 percentage points to real GDP growth in Q4. Net exports subtracted -0.22 percentage points to growth in Q4, as imports fell -1.0% versus -4.4% in the prior quarter while exports decreased -3.2% versus a +9.6% rise in Q3. Government Spending decreased -5.6% following a +2.2% rise in the prior quarter. As a result, government spending subtracted -0.99 percentage points from growth in Q4. The Personal Saving Rate fell to +4.2% from +5.3% in the prior quarter. The GDP Price Index (GDP Price Deflator) was down a tick to +3.7% from +3.8% in the second estimate, and versus +3.8% in Q3. The bottom line from the report is that the US economy showed much slower growth at the end of the year than previously estimated, well before the conflict in the Middle East began.
• Weekly MBA Mortgage Applications dipped -0.8% for the week ending April 3, after falling just over -10% for each of the last three weeks. The Purchase Index increased +1.0% after declining -2.6% the prior week. The Refinance Index slipped -2.8% after dropping -17.3% the prior week. The average 30-Year Mortgage Rate slipped to 6.51% from 6.57% the prior week, which was the highest level since August 29, 2025.
• Weekly Initial Jobless Claims were up +16,000 to 219,000 for the week ending April 3, which was worse than expectations for 210,000. The prior week was revised higher by +1,000. The number of people already collecting unemployment claims (i.e., Continuing Claims) fell by -38,000 to 1,794,000 for the week ending March 27, which was better than expectations for 1,828,000. The prior week’s reading was revised lower by -9,000.

Asset Class Performance

Source: Bloomberg.
Asset‐class performance is presented by using market returns from an exchange‐traded fund (ETF) proxy that best represents its respective broad asset class. Returns shown are net of fund fees for and do not necessarily represent performance of specific mutual funds and/or exchange-traded funds recommended by The Retirement Planning Group. The performance of those funds may be substantially different from the performance of the broad asset classes and to proxy ETFs represented here. US Bonds (iShares Core US Aggregate Bond ETF); High‐Yield Bond (iShares iBoxx $ High Yield Corporate Bond ETF); Intl Bonds (Vanguard Total International Bond ETF); Large Growth (iShares Russell 1000 Growth ETF); Large Value (iShares Russell 1000 Value ETF); Mid Growth (iShares Russell Mid-Cap Growth ETF); Mid Value (iShares Russell Mid-Cap Value ETF); Small Growth (iShares Russell 2000 Growth ETF); Small Value (iShares Russell 2000 Value ETF); Intl Equity (iShares MSCI EAFE ETF); Emg Markets (iShares MSCI Emerging Markets ETF); and Real Estate (iShares US Real Estate ETF). The return displayed as “Allocation” is a weighted average of the ETF proxies shown as represented by 24% US Bonds, 10% International Bonds, 6% High Yield Bonds, 13.8% Large Growth, 13.8% Large Value, 3.6% Mid Growth, 3.6% Mid Value, 1.2% Small Growth, 1.2% Small Value, 16.8% International Stock, 4.2% Emerging Markets, 1.8% Real Estate.
* The term basis points (bps) refers to a common unit of measure for interest rates and other percentages in finance. One basis point is equal to 0.01%. Bond prices and bond yields are inversely related. As the price of a bond goes up, the yield decreases.