Weekly Market Update – April 17, 2026

Quick Takes

• U.S. and global markets wrapped up another strong week, buoyed by easing geopolitical concerns, a powerful start to corporate earnings season, and mostly encouraging economic data. 
• U.S. stocks logged their third straight week of gains, with Wall Street’s major indexes climbing to fresh all-time highs on three consecutive trading days. The Nasdaq led the way, soaring +6.8% for the week, the Russell 2000 rose +5.6%, and the S&P 500 was up +4.5%.
• The Bloomberg U.S. Aggregate Bond Index returned +0.6%, marking its third consecutive positive week. International bonds did even better: the Bloomberg Global Aggregate ex-U.S. Index gained +1.1%, extending a strong multi-week run.

Source: Bloomberg. Data as of April 17, 2026.
Price Returns for Equity, Total Returns for Bonds.
* The term basis points (bps) refers to a common unit of measure for interest rates and other percentages in finance. One basis point is equal to 0.01%. Bond prices and bond yields are inversely related. As the price of a bond goes up, the yield decreases.

Stocks surge to new highs as global tensions cool and earnings impress

U.S. and global markets wrapped up another strong week, buoyed by easing geopolitical concerns, a powerful start to corporate earnings season, and mostly encouraging economic data. Here’s a breakdown of what moved markets—at home and abroad—and what it says about the economy right now.

U.S. Stocks: AI optimism returns and earnings momentum drive a rally

U.S. stocks logged their third straight week of gains, with Wall Street’s major indexes climbing to fresh all-time highs on three consecutive trading days. The Nasdaq Composite led the way, soaring +6.8% for the week, followed by the Russell 2000 small-cap index (+5.6%) and the S&P 500 (+4.5%).

A notable shift from earlier in the year has been a renewed surge of enthusiasm around artificial intelligence-related stocks. Large-cap growth companies outperformed value stocks for the third week in a row, and the Information Technology sector jumped 8.1%, its best weekly performance since May 2025.

Milestones added to the optimism. The S&P 500 closed above 7,100 for the first time, and the Nasdaq extended its winning streak to 13 consecutive days, its longest run since 1992.

Geopolitical developments also played a role. Signs of de-escalation in the Middle East helped calm markets, even as reports remained mixed about conditions in the Strait of Hormuz. Oil prices fell sharply during the week—West Texas Intermediate crude dropped about -11.4% to around $85 a barrel, while Brent crude slipped -3.5% to $91—easing inflation concerns that had previously weighed on investors.

Another big driver of the rally has been earnings. About 10% of S&P 500 companies have reported first-quarter results so far, and 88% beat analysts’ expectations, according to FactSet. That’s well above the 10-year average beat rate of 76%, giving investors fresh confidence in corporate profitability.

International Stocks: Global markets rise, but trail the U.S.

The rally wasn’t limited to the U.S. The MSCI World Index rose +1.1% to a record high, and most major international benchmarks extended gains for a third straight week—though generally at a slower pace than U.S. stocks.

In developed markets, the MSCI EAFE Index gained +2.1%. Europe led the charge, with the MSCI Europe Index up +2.5%, powered by a +4.2% surge in Germany. Italy, France, and Spain each climbed between +2% and +3%, while Japan rose +1.6%.

Emerging markets also performed well. The MSCI Emerging Markets Index advanced +3.2%, building on the prior week’s massive +7.4% jump, its biggest weekly gain since June 2020. South Korea rose +7.6%, and Taiwan added +4.4%, benefiting from a powerful combination of falling oil prices and a rebound in semiconductor demand.

Another tailwind came from currency markets. The U.S. Dollar Index fell -0.6%, following a -1.4% decline the week before, making international assets more attractive to dollar-based investors.

Bonds: Yields fall as Treasurys and credit markets rally

Bond investors also had a solid week. U.S. Treasurys posted gains as yields declined, particularly after news suggesting reduced immediate risk to global energy supply.

The 10-year Treasury yield fell -7 basis points to 4.32%, its largest weekly drop since late March. Short-term rates fell even more, with the 2-year yield down -9 basis points to 3.71%, while the 30-year yield slipped -3 basis points to 4.88%.

As a result, the Bloomberg U.S. Aggregate Bond Index returned +0.6%, marking its third consecutive positive week. International bonds did even better: the Bloomberg Global Aggregate ex-U.S. Index gained +1.1%, extending a strong multi-week run.

With risk appetite improving, corporate and high-yield bonds outperformed Treasurys, each delivering +0.7% returns for the week.

Macroeconomics & Monetary Policy: Steady growth, easing inflation pressures, housing weakness

On the economic front, the Federal Reserve’s latest Beige Book painted a picture of slight to modest growth across the U.S. Spending by higher-income households remained resilient, but many regions reported growing price sensitivity and financial strain among consumers. Employment was steady to slightly higher, while price growth was described as moderate overall, despite rising energy costs.

Inflation data provided some reassurance. Both headline and core Producer Price Index readings for March came in below expectations, helped by flat services inflation. At the same time, export prices rose faster than import prices.

Manufacturing activity showed signs of renewed life. The New York Fed’s Empire State Manufacturing Index jumped to 11.0, its highest level since November, while the Philadelphia Fed’s index climbed to 26.7, the strongest reading since early 2025.

Labor markets remained stable. Initial jobless claims fell to 207,000, signaling subdued layoffs and a steady employment backdrop.

Housing remained a weak spot. Existing home sales fell -3.6% in March, and homebuilder confidence dropped sharply, with the Housing Market Index sliding to 34, reflecting continued pressure from affordability challenges and softer demand.

The Bottom Line

Strong earnings, cooling inflation signals, and easing geopolitical fears have pushed stocks and bonds higher together. While parts of the economy—especially housing—remain under strain, market momentum suggests investors are increasingly confident that growth can continue without reigniting inflation if the Iran War can be resolved.

Chart of the Week

March wholesale inflation increased with the headline Producer Price Index (PPI) rising +0.5% for the month, less than half the expected +1.1% rise and matching the downwardly revised level the prior month (originally reported at +0.7%). Year-over-year (YoY) PPI increased at a +4.0% rate, up from the unrevised +3.4% annual rate the prior month. While that is the highest annual rate in three years, it was well below Wall Street expectations for a +4.6% annual rate. Core PPI, which strips out volatile food and energy costs, was up just +0.1% for the month, compared to expectations for a +0.4% rise, and down from a +0.3% reading the prior month (revised lower from +0.5%). Core PPI was up +3.8% YoY, below expectations for +4.1% and unchanged from the prior month’s annual rate after being revised lower from +3.9%. The index for Final Demand Goods increased +1.1%, the largest increase since August 2023, and follows a +1.0% rise the prior month. The index for Final Demand Services was unchanged at +1.6%. The index for Unprocessed Goods for Intermediate Demand fell -2.6%, the largest drop since April 2025, paced by a -7.7% drop in the index for Unprocessed Energy Materials. The bottom line is that the PPI uptick came mostly from energy prices, particularly gasoline prices, which jumped +15.7%. The fact that the index for Final Demand Services was unchanged is an indication that the energy price spike is temporary and markets are generally looking through it.

Wholesale Prices Rose Much Less Than Expected Despite Iran War Impact

 U.S. Producer Price Index (PPI), annual % change (Mar. 2023 – Mar. 2026)

Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics, Briefing.com.

The Week Ahead

It is hard to remember an economic calendar as sparse as this week. With nothing on the docket for Monday, things don’t get started until Tuesday. The Census Bureau kicks things off then with the advance reading on March Retail Sales, followed by Pending Home Sales for March from the National Realtors Association. Wednesday only brings the regular weekly MBA Mortgage Applications. Thursday is the busy day with the Chicago Fed National Activity Index for March, weekly Jobless Claims, the April preliminary U.S. Manufacturing and Services Purchasing Managers’ Indexes from S&P Global, and the Kansas City Fed’s Manufacturing Activity for April. Friday concludes the week with the final April University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment.

Making up for the slow economic reports, roughly 90 S&P 500 companies are set to report first quarter earnings this week. Their results could determine whether the latest rally has legs. Among them, Capital One Financial, Danaher, GE Aerospace, RTX, and UnitedHealth Group report on Tuesday. AT&T, Boeing, IBM, Lam Research, Philip Morris International, ServiceNow, Tesla, and Texas Instruments announce results on Wednesday, followed by American Express, Comcast, Honeywell International, Intel, Lockheed Martin, NextEra Energy, and Union Pacific on Thursday. HCA Healthcare, Norfolk Southern, and Procter & Gamble close out the week on Friday. All the Mag 7 companies, excluding Nvidia, will report this week or the following week.

The two-week US-Iran ceasefire began on April 8 and is due to expire on Wednesday, April 21. Pakistan is leading mediation efforts, with senior military officials engaging Tehran to secure a second round of talks in Islamabad. Any news surrounding those developments is bound to command headlines.

After more than a dozen Fed speaker events last week, this week will be the Fed’s external blackout period ahead of their April 28-29 FOMC meeting. However, the Senate Banking Committee will hold a confirmation hearing for Kevin Warsh on Tuesday, April 21, that is expected to scrutinize his views on Federal Reserve independence, inflation, labor markets, regulation, and his financial disclosures. His path to confirmation remains uncertain, as Republican Senator Thom Tillis has said he will not support advancing the nomination until a Justice Department probe into current Fed Chair Jerome Powell is resolved, leaving the committee with a slim margin.

Did You Know?

STRENGTH BEGETS STRENGTH – On April 15, the S&P 500 had gained +10.7% in 11 trading days. Since 1953, there have been only 20 other 11-day spikes of 10%+ without another in the prior three months. Forward returns after these signals have averaged at least twice the all-period average across the 1-month, 3-month, 6-month, and 1-year subsequent periods. Over the following six months, the S&P has averaged a gain of +10.5% versus +4.5% for all six-month periods since 1953. (Source: Bespoke)

CASH PILE – The size of Berkshire Hathaway’s cash pile has grown to a record $373.1 billion. Greg Abel has been at the helm of the company for 100 days now and is scrutinizing businesses and investments established under Warren Buffett’s long run. For many shareholders, the true test of Abel’s mettle will be his ability to put Berkshire’s record amount of cash to work. (Source: The Wall Street Journal)

HARD DATA GOOD, SOFT DATA BAD – The headlines for much of the year have focused on doubts about Artificial Intelligence (AI) viability and the Iran War. Somewhat unnoticed has been the health of economic “hard data”, which has been quite good, while poor “soft data” has made headlines. Hard data like weekly jobless claims, weekly ADP hiring estimates, and heavy truck orders have all been solid. Soft data on the consumer hasn’t – with surveys like the Conference Board’s Consumer Confidence very weak and the University of Michigan’s Consumer Sentiment index hitting a record low this month. Clearly the soft data is being impacted by the Middle East conflict, rising interest rates and gas prices. (Source: Bespoke)

This Week in History

EARLY AMERICAN AIRLINES – On April 15, 1926, Charles Lindbergh made one of the earliest commercial air flights, zipping between Chicago and St. Louis in a De Havilland DH-4 biplane to deliver a sack of mail for Robertson Aircraft Corp. Robertson later grew into American Airlines. (Source: The Wall Street Journal)

Economic Review

• Import Prices were up +0.8% in March, far below expectation for a +2.3% increase, and down from a +0.9% increase the prior month (revised lower from +1.3%). Import Prices ex Petroleum were up +0.1%, below expectations to come in at +0.3%, and down from +0.9% the prior month (after being revised lower from +1.2%). Year-over-year, the cost of imports rose +2.1%, far below expectations for a +4.4% annual rate, but up from the prior month’s +1.0% annual rate after it was revised down from +1.3%. Meanwhile, Export Prices were up +1.6%, above expectations for +1.5% but down from the prior month’s +1.9% increase after being revised up from +1.5%. Export prices accelerated to +5.6% over the past year, more than the expected +4.8% rise, and up from last month’s +3.8% annual rate (revised up from +3.5%).
• The New York Fed’s Empire State Manufacturing Index, a gauge of manufacturing activity in the state, jumped +11.2 points to +11.0 points in April – a five-month high. Wall Street expected it to be flat (0.0). New Orders rose +12.9 points to +19.3, and Shipments soared +27.1 points to +20.2. That was the best result for both in nearly three years. The Employment index rose +4.0 points to +9.8. Both inflation gauges were up, with the Prices Paid index jumping +14.4 points to +51.0 and the Prices Received index inching up +0.4 points to +21.8. The outlook soured further, with the Six Months Ahead General Business Conditions index falling -11.4 points to +19.6, after hitting its highest level since early last year in February.
• The Philly Fed Manufacturing Business Outlook Survey jumped +8.6 points to +26.7 in April. That was sharply higher than Wall Street forecasts for an increase to +10.0. Readings above zero indicate economic expansion and below zero signal economic contraction. The indexes for New Orders surged +24.4 points to +33.0, and Shipments rose +11.8 points to +34.0. Delivery Times fell significantly, down -17.2 points to +1.7 after surging +28.8 points the prior month. The Employment index fell -5.9 points back into contraction territory at -5.10, while the Average Workweek jumped +4.9 points to +7.7. Prices Paid remain elevated, rising +14.6 points to +59.3, while Prices Received increased +12.3 points to +33.5, both at eight-month highs and well above long-run non-recession averages. Future activity expectations improved, with the Future General Activity index up to +40.8.
• US Industrial Production fell -0.5% in March, below expectations for +0.1% and down from +0.7% the prior month (revised higher from +0.2%). Manufacturing Production, which represents about three-quarters of total Industrial Production, slipped -0.1%, below expectations for a +0.1% increase and down from +0.4% the prior month (revised higher from +0.2%). Year-over-Year, Industrial Production was up +0.7%, following the prior month’s +1.2% annual pace. Capacity Utilization fell to 75.7%, down from 76.1% the prior month (revised down from 76.3%). Capacity Utilization reflects how much a manufacturing plant is being used to produce things. The key takeaway from the report is that the industrial production decline is not as bad as it looks when taking into account the large upward revision in February, which effectively offsets the decline in March.
• The National Federation of Independent Business (NFIB) reported that their Small Business Optimism Index slipped to 95.8 in March, down from an unrevised 98.8 the prior month, falling below its 52-year average of 98. That was below Wall Street expectations for 97.9. Of the 10 component indexes, none increased, while eight declined, and two were unchanged. The declines were led by Earnings Trends, which sank -11 points to -25%, Expect Economy to Improve, which fell -7 points to +11%, and Good Time to Expand, which declined -4 points to +11%. The separate Uncertainty Index rose +4 points to 92, its highest level since September 2025. “The 20% Small Business Deduction and other supportive small business tax provisions in the Working Families Tax Cut Act have had many positives for small business owners,” said NFIB Chief Economist Bill Dunkelberg. “However, the dramatic spike in oil prices has spooked consumers and owners alike.  Small business owners are having to absorb those higher input costs and pass them along to their customers.”
• Homebuilder confidence fell in March as the National Association of Home Builders (NAHB) Housing Market Index (HMI) declined -4 points to 34, versus expectations to remain at 37, which is where it was the prior month (unrevised). A year ago, the index stood at 40. The index is based on a 0-to-100 scale, where any number over 50 indicates a good reading, and below 50 is considered negative sentiment. Sentiment has been in negative territory for 22 months in a row. The three subcomponents all decreased for the month, with the Current Sales component down -4 points to 37, Sales Expectations in the Next Six Months was down -7 points to 42, and Traffic of Prospective Buyers was down -3 points to 22. For the month, 36% of builders reported cutting home prices (down -1 percentage point), the average price reduction was down a percentage point to 5%, and use of sales incentives was down -4 percentage points to 60%. On a regional basis, the Northeast fell -1 point to 41, the West was down -5 points to 26, the Midwest fell -7 points to 38, and the South was down -2 points to 34.
• The National Association of Realtors (NAR) reported that Existing Home Sales fell -3.6% in March to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 3.98 million units, below expectations for 4.05 million units and down from the 4.13 million units reported the prior month (revised up from 4.09 million units). Year-over-year existing sales were down -1.0%, versus a -0.5% annual decline the prior month. The Median Existing Home Price increased +1.4% from the prior year to $408,800, marking the 33rd consecutive month of year-over-year increases. The Inventory of Homes for Sale was up +3.0% from the prior month to 1.36 million units and is up +4.9% from a year ago. Unsold Inventory sits at a 3.8-month supply, up from 3.7 months the previous month and 3.6 a year ago. This remains below the 6.0-month supply typically associated with a more balanced market. The Median Time on Market for properties was 41 days, down from 47 in February and 36 a year ago. First-Time Buyers accounted for 32% of sales, down from 34% the previous month. Cash Sales accounted for 27% of transactions versus 31% the prior month and 32% a year ago.   For the month, sales fell in every region, down -1.3% in the West, -8.5% in the Northeast, -4.2% in the Midwest, and -3.1% in the South.
• Weekly MBA Mortgage Applications increased +1.8% for the week ending April 10, after declining -0.8% the prior week, and falling more than -10% each of the prior three weeks. The Purchase Index decreased -1.0% after rising +1.0% the prior week. The Refinance Index rose +5.1% after dropping -2.8% the prior week and sinking -17.3, -14.6%, and -18.5% each of the three prior weeks. The average 30-Year Mortgage Rate slipped to 6.42% from 6.51% the prior week and 6.57% the week before that, which was the highest level since August 29, 2025. 
• Weekly Initial Jobless Claims were down -11,000 to 207,000 for the week ending April 10, which was better than expectations for 210,000. The prior week was revised lower by -1,000. The number of people already collecting unemployment claims (i.e., Continuing Claims) rose by +31,000 to 1,818,000 for the week ending April 3, which was better than expectations for 1,820,000. The prior week’s reading was revised lower by -7,000.

Asset Class Performance

Source: Bloomberg.
Asset‐class performance is presented by using market returns from an exchange‐traded fund (ETF) proxy that best represents its respective broad asset class. Returns shown are net of fund fees for and do not necessarily represent performance of specific mutual funds and/or exchange-traded funds recommended by The Retirement Planning Group. The performance of those funds may be substantially different from the performance of the broad asset classes and to proxy ETFs represented here. US Bonds (iShares Core US Aggregate Bond ETF); High‐Yield Bond (iShares iBoxx $ High Yield Corporate Bond ETF); Intl Bonds (Vanguard Total International Bond ETF); Large Growth (iShares Russell 1000 Growth ETF); Large Value (iShares Russell 1000 Value ETF); Mid Growth (iShares Russell Mid-Cap Growth ETF); Mid Value (iShares Russell Mid-Cap Value ETF); Small Growth (iShares Russell 2000 Growth ETF); Small Value (iShares Russell 2000 Value ETF); Intl Equity (iShares MSCI EAFE ETF); Emg Markets (iShares MSCI Emerging Markets ETF); and Real Estate (iShares US Real Estate ETF). The return displayed as “Allocation” is a weighted average of the ETF proxies shown as represented by 24% US Bonds, 10% International Bonds, 6% High Yield Bonds, 13.8% Large Growth, 13.8% Large Value, 3.6% Mid Growth, 3.6% Mid Value, 1.2% Small Growth, 1.2% Small Value, 16.8% International Stock, 4.2% Emerging Markets, 1.8% Real Estate.
* The term basis points (bps) refers to a common unit of measure for interest rates and other percentages in finance. One basis point is equal to 0.01%. Bond prices and bond yields are inversely related. As the price of a bond goes up, the yield decreases.