Weekly Market Update – March 13, 2026

Quick Takes

• Wall Street ended last week much the way it began: taking its cues from oil prices. Fresh inflation data, rising geopolitical tensions involving Iran, and sharp swings in energy markets combined to push stocks lower and lift bond yields.
• U.S. stocks posted their third straight weekly decline. The S&P 500 fell -1.6%, the tech-heavy Nasdaq Composite dropped -1.3%, and the small-cap Russell 2000 slid -1.8%. Overseas, the MSCI EAFE Index declined -2.1% and the MSCI Emerging Markets Index fell -2.0%.
• Bond markets also struggled as the 10-year U.S. Treasury yield jumped +14 basis points to 4.28% and the 2-year Treasury yield rose +16 basis points to 3.72%. The Bloomberg U.S. Aggregate Bond Index fell -0.9% and The Bloomberg Global Aggregate ex-U.S. Index dropped -1.5.

Source: Bloomberg. Data as of March 13, 2026.
Price Returns for Equity, Total Returns for Bonds.
* The term basis points (bps) refers to a common unit of measure for interest rates and other percentages in finance. One basis point is equal to 0.01%. Bond prices and bond yields are inversely related. As the price of a bond goes up, the yield decreases.

Oil prices rattle markets as inflation stays sticky and growth slows

Wall Street ended last week much the way it began: taking its cues from oil prices. Fresh inflation data, rising geopolitical tensions involving Iran, and sharp swings in energy markets combined to push stocks lower and lift bond yields. By Friday, major U.S. stock indexes had fallen to their lowest levels since November, underscoring how fragile investor sentiment has become. Below is a breakdown of what moved markets and how the week unfolded across stocks, bonds, and the broader economy. 

U.S. Stocks:Energy fears and inflation pressures

U.S. stocks posted their third straight weekly decline as investors grappled with the risk that Middle East tensions could disrupt global oil supplies. After initially showing resilience following the Iran attacks, markets grew more unsettled as the week wore on. For the week:

• The S&P 500 fell -1.6%
• The tech-heavy Nasdaq Composite dropped -1.3%
• The small-cap Russell 2000 slid -1.8%

Oil prices were volatile throughout the week as investors weighed the possibility of prolonged disruptions through the Strait of Hormuz, a key shipping route for crude. Those concerns intensified late in the week, putting pressure on equities across the board.

The backdrop of stubborn inflation added to the unease. With price pressures proving slower to cool than hoped, investors increasingly believe the Federal Reserve will keep interest rates higher for longer, limiting any near-term support for stocks.

International Stocks: A sharp reversal after a strong run

After 14 consecutive positive weeks, non-U.S. stocks have now fallen for two straight weeks, marking a notable shift in global market momentum.

Developed-market stocks, measured by the MSCI EAFE Index, declined -2.1% for the week, following a steep -6.8% drop the week before — their worst weekly loss since April 2025. Japan led losses among developed markets, falling -3.3% after a -6.7% plunge the prior week.

Emerging markets were down -2.0%, nearly matching developed markets, after tumbling -6.9% the previous week — their worst showing since February 2021.

• India was the biggest laggard among emerging markets, sinking 5.5%, its worst week since June 2022.
• One notable exception was China, which rose 0.4% for the week, snapping a five-week losing streak and bucking the broader global trend.

Bonds: Yields march higher, prices fall lower

Bond markets also struggled as investors reacted to both geopolitical risk and hotter inflation data. When yields rise, bond prices fall — and that dynamic was on full display last week.

• The 10-year U.S. Treasury yield jumped +14 basis points to 4.28%
• The 2-year Treasury yield rose even more, up +16 basis points to 3.72%

Short-term yields climbed faster as investors pulled back expectations that the Fed might cut rates at all this year. That shift hurt bond prices across the curve. Here are the primary moves regarding bond return for the week:

• The Bloomberg U.S. Aggregate Bond Index, a broad measure of the U.S. bond market, fell -0.9%, following a -1.0% drop the week before — its worst week since April 2025.
• Corporate bonds underperformed Treasuries.  According to T. Rowe Price, it was the second-largest week of bond issuance ever. 
• High-yield bonds also declined, tracking equity market losses and reacting to swings in energy prices.

International bonds fared even worse. The Bloomberg Global Aggregate ex-U.S. Index dropped -1.5%, following a -2.4% fall the prior week — its sharpest decline since September 2022.

Economics: Slower growth, hotter inflation, mixed signals

On Friday, the second estimate of fourth-quarter U.S. GDP showed growth of just +0.7%, down sharply from the prior estimate of +1.4%. Part of the slowdown was linked to last year’s government shutdown, but reduced consumer spending also played a role.

At the same time, inflation showed renewed signs of heating up:

• The Core PCE Price Index, the Fed’s preferred inflation gauge, rose +3.1% in January, up from +3.0% in December and the highest reading in nearly two years.
• Earlier in the week, the Consumer Price Index (CPI) rose +0.3% in February, an acceleration from January, though Core CPI eased slightly on a monthly basis.
• On an annual basis, headline CPI was +2.4% and Core CPI +2.5%, both matching expectations and unchanged from the prior month’s rates.

All of this data came before the latest escalation in Iran, which has sent oil prices surging. West Texas Intermediate crude jumped +8.6% last week to $98.71 a barrel, and U.S. drivers are feeling the impact. According to AAA, the national average gas price is now $3.63 a gallon, up from under $3.00 in late February.

Despite the challenges, there were pockets of good news:

• Existing home sales rose +1.7% in February
• Housing starts surged in January, driven by a +29% jump in multi-family construction
• Job openings increased more than expected, according to the JOLTS report
• Consumer sentiment beat expectations, even as it slipped from February
• Both the budget deficit and trade deficit came in narrower than projected

Still, with inflation elevated and energy prices rising, markets now widely expect the Fed to leave interest rates unchanged at its upcoming meetings. For investors, higher oil prices and sticky rates are becoming a new reality — and a key reason markets remain under pressure.

The Bottom Line

Rising oil prices and stubborn inflation have shaken markets, pushing U.S. and international stocks lower for another week and driving bond yields higher. Slowing economic growth and renewed geopolitical risk have left the Federal Reserve boxed in, with investors now expecting interest rates to stay unchanged despite market volatility. While parts of the economy — including housing and jobs — show resilience, higher energy costs and “higher-for-longer” rates are weighing on confidence. For now, uncertainty around inflation, oil, and global tensions is firmly in the driver’s seat for markets. 

Chart of the Week

The rate of inflation for consumer goods and services was right in line with Wall Street expectations in February, as the headline Consumer Price Index (CPI) was up +0.3% for the month, up a tick from +0.2% in January. Year-over-year (YoY), CPI was +2.4%, as expected and unchanged from the unrevised January annual rate. Core CPI, which excludes the more volatile food and energy prices, increased +0.2% for the month, again matching expectations but down a tick from the unrevised +0.3% the prior month. YoY Core CPI was +2.5%, matching expectations and the prior month’s annual rate, which leaves it at the lowest annual rate in four years. The Energy index was up +0.6% for the month and +0.5% for the year, but that was before the spike in oil prices from the Iran conflict. The good news is that Shelter, which is about one-third of the CPI weighting, was steady for both the monthly and annual rates at +0.2% and+3.0% respectively. The Food index was up +0.4% for the month and +3.1% for the year, both acceleration from the prior month’s +0.2% and +2.9% rates. One area with a noticeable decline was the Used Cars and Trucks index, which was down -0.4% month-over-month and down -3.2% year-over-year. The bottom line is that both Headline CPI and Core CPI were little changed and on the soft side in February, but that was all before the recent surge in energy prices that will increase expectations for hotter readings in March.

Consumer Prices Were Right in Line with Wall Street Expectations in February

U.S. Consumer Price Index, Year-over-year % change (Jan. 2021 – Feb. 2026)

Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS), CNBC.

The Week Ahead

The economic calendar is full this week until Friday, which has no major reports. Wall Street will be focused on wholesale inflation on Wednesday, with the February Producer Price Index (PPI) report due, and then that afternoon the Fed’s monetary policy decision will be announced, although there is no expectation that they’ll change the Federal Funds Rate at this meeting. 

Outside of the PPI and FOMC meeting on Wednesday, the NAHB Housing Market Index will shed light on homebuilder confidence on Monday, Pending Home Sales on Tuesday, and New Home Sales on Thursday.

Although there are no major economic reports on Friday, markets may see additional volatility from quarterly triple witching options expiration, while WTI crude April futures expire amid a volatile period for the oil market.

A sparse earnings calendar has Lululemon Athletica reporting results on Tuesday, followed by Micron Technology on Wednesday, and FedEx on Thursday. Technology stocks could see movement from Nvidia’s four-day GTC conference in San Jose, where CEO Jensen Huang will deliver a keynote and companies including Microsoft, Meta Platforms, and Tesla are expected to participate. All are members of the formerly high-flying Magnificent 7 but have struggled in 2026. The Bloomberg Magnificent 7 Index is down nearly -9% year-to-date, after returns of +106%, 67%, and +25% in 2023, 2024, and 2025. Developments at the event could also impact AI-related chipmakers such as AMD, Taiwan Semiconductor, Broadcom, and Intel.

Did You Know?

AMERICA’S ENERGY EDGE – From 1973 through 2020, the U.S. was a net importer of crude oil and petroleum products. That changed in 2021, when the U.S. became a net exporter for the first time in over 50 years. The shift in its energy trade position means the U.S. is now far better insulated than in prior decades from events like a war in the Middle East. (Source: US Energy Administration)

MIDTERM BLUES – In midterm election years since 1945, the S&P 500’s median peak-to-trough decline has been -18.0%, with a decline of at least -10% occurring 70% of the time. In non-midterm years, the median peak-to- trough decline has been just -10.2%, with a 10%+ decline occurring just 52% of the time. (Source: Bespoke)

RAIDING THE NEST EGG – In 2025, a record 6% of workers in Vanguard 401(k) plans took hardship distributions, the sixth straight annual increase and up from a pre-pandemic average of 2%. Avoiding foreclosure and covering rising medical expenses are the leading drivers, though the 2018 Budget Act, which made hardship withdrawals easier, has also fueled the trend. (Source: WSJ)

This Week in History

Q’s – On March 10, 1999, Nasdaq introduced its Nasdaq-100 ETF (QQQ). The ETF closed its first trading day at $51.06. A year later, the ETF fetched $114.50. But a year after that, all its gains had evaporated and it traded at $45.10. (Source: The Wall Street Journal)

Economic Review

• The Bureau of Labor Statistics reported the Job Openings Labor Turnover Survey (JOLTS) showed that Job Openings rose to 6.946 million in January, well above Wall Street estimates for 6.750 million, and up from 6.550 million the prior month (revised higher from 6.542 million). The increase was driven by a range of industries, including finance and insurance, health care and social assistance, retail trade and accommodation and food services. Job openings in manufacturing climbed to the highest since mid-2024. The Number of People Quitting Jobs was 3.137 million, down from 3.225 million the prior month (revised up from 3.204 million). The record was 4.5 million job quitters in late 2021. The Quits Rate ticked was unchanged at 2.0%. People tend to quit less often when the economy softens and jobs become harder to find. The Hiring Rate was unchanged at 3.3%–it typically ranges from 3.7% to 4.0% in a strong economy. The Layoffs Rate was down a tick at 1.0% from 1.1%, remaining below the 1.4% annual average from 2010 to 2019.
• The preliminary reading of the University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index fell to 55.5 in March from a final reading of 56.6 the prior month but easily beat expectations for a decline to 54.8. In the same period a year ago, the index stood at 57.0. The Current Economic Conditions component improved to 57.8 from 56.6 the prior month, beating expectations to fall to 54.9. The Consumer Expectations component fell to 54.1 from 56.6 the prior month, short of expectations to come in at 54.5. One-year inflation expectations were unchanged at 3.4%, under expectations to come in at 3.7%. The five-year inflation expectations was 3.2%, up a tick from 3.3% the prior month, versus expectation to move up to 3.4%. A key point is that roughly half of the survey responses came before the military action in Iran, meaning it is likely to be revised lower in the final reading in two weeks. 
• The cost of goods and services rose +0.3% in January, matching expectations and a tick down from +0.4% the previous month (unrevised). For the year, the Personal Consumption Expenditure (PCE) Deflator (aka PCE Price Index) was up +2.8%, a tick below expectations for +2.9%, which is what it was the prior month (unrevised). The Core PCE Price Index, which excludes food and energy and is the Fed’s preferred inflation gauge, was up +0.4% for the month, matching expectations and the prior month’s unrevised reading. Year-over-year, the Core-PCE Price Index was up +3.1%, in line with expectations and up from +3.0% (unrevised) the prior month. The key takeaway from the report is that the Core PCE Price Index, the Fed’s preferred inflation gauge, increased to +3.1%, moving away from the Fed’s +2.0% target. 
• The Census Bureau reported preliminary Durable Goods Orders for long-lasting items (such as televisions, appliances, and transportation equipment) were flat (0.0%) in January, following an upwardly revised -0.9% fall (from -1.4%) the prior month. That was short of Wall Street expectations to rise +1.1%. Durable Goods Orders Excluding Transportation were up +0.4%, shy of expectations for a +0.5% reading and the prior month’s +1.3% rise (revised up from +1.0%). The important Core Capital Goods Orders (capital goods excluding volatile sectors like transportation and defense), a proxy for business spending, was also flat (0.0%), well below expectations for a +0.5% reading, but down sharply from the unrevised +0.8% increase the prior month. Core Capital Goods Shipments, which are factored into GDP, slipped -0.1%, below expectations for a +0.4% gain and the unrevised +1.0% reading the month before.
• On Friday, the Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) reported the second estimate of real Gross Domestic Product (GDP) for the fourth quarter 2025 that showed the U.S. economy grew at just a +0.7% annual pace. That was a sharp reduction from the +1.4% annual pace seen in the initial estimate, where Wall Street expected it to stay. Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE), the main engine of the economy, increased +2.0% in Q4, down from +2.4% in the advance estimate and versus +3.5% in Q3. The PCE component contributed +1.3 percentage points to real GDP growth in the fourth quarter. However, Exports decreased -3.3%, a sharp downward restatement from the -0.9% initial estimate and the +9.6% surge in Q3. Imports fell -1.1%, revised lower from the -1.3% preliminary reading and versus -4.4% in Q3. The shutdown was really seen in Government spending, which dropped -5.8% in Q4 after rising +2.2% in Q3. That resulted in a -1.0-percentage point subtraction from Q4 real GDP growth. In contrast to GDP, Gross Private Domestic Investment increased +3.3% (revised down from +3.8% in the first estimate) after being flat the prior quarter, resulting in a +0.6 percentage point contribution to Q4 GDP growth. The GDP Price Index (GDP Price Deflator) was revised higher to +3.8% from +3.6% in the initial estimate. The bottom line from the report is that the U.S. economy decelerated much more than expected in the fourth quarter, while the Price Deflator was revised high, a disappointing stagflationary combination. Still, the resilience of private sector activity was seen in Real Final Sales to Private Domestic Purchasers—a measure of underlying Private-Sector Demand—which increased +1.9%, up from the +1.1% initial estimate and not too far behind the +2.8% rate in Q3.
• The US Treasury Department recorded a Federal Budget Deficit of -$307.5 billion in February, better than expectations of -$310.0 billion, and wider than the $307.0 billion deficit recorded in February 2025. Receipts rose +5.6% (to $313.1 billion) on a year-ago basis, while Outlays rose 2.8% (to $620.6 billion). Social Insurance & Retirement Receipts ($144 billion) were the largest source of receipts in February, followed by Individual Income Taxes ($133 billion). The largest outlays by function were Social Security ($138 billion), Income Security ($104 billion), Health ($81 billion), and Net Interest ($79 billion). The fiscal year-to-date deficit is $1.004 trillion versus $1.147 trillion in the same period a year ago.
• According to the US Census Bureau, the US Trade Deficit for January narrowed to -$54.5 billion from -$72.9 billion in December (revised from -$70.3 billion). That was better than the -$66.0 billion deficit expected. Smaller trade deficits help contribute to economic growth, while larger deficits inhibit growth. Exports were $302.1 billion, a +$15.8 billion increase from December and an all-time high. Imports were $356.6 billion, -2.6 billion less than December. Adjusted for inflation, real goods deficit narrowed by -$14.0 billion to -$83.9 billion. Overall, the narrower than projected deficit returned to the -$50 billion range, which has been a familiar zone since last year’s implementation of tariffs. 
• The National Federation of Independent Business (NFIB) reported that their Small Business Optimism Index slipped to 98.8 in February, down from an unrevised 99.3 the prior month, but remaining above its 52-year average of 98. That was below Wall Street expectations for 99.6. Of the 10 component indexes, 3 increased, while 4 declined, and 3 were unchanged. The improvements were led by Earnings Trends which increased +7 points to -14%. The two other gains were Current Job Openings and Current Inventories, up +2 points to +33% and +1 to -2%, respectively. On the downside, Expect Real Sales Higher dropped -8 points to +8% and Plans to Increase Employment fell -4 points to +12%. “Although optimism declined slightly, small businesses report feeling more certain in February as they look toward the coming months,” said NFIB Chief Economist Bill Dunkelberg. “High sales and increased profits made February a more positive month for many owners, but competition from large businesses is putting stress on Main Street firms as they navigate the current economic climate.”
• The National Association of Realtors (NAR) reported that Existing Home Sales rose +1.7% in February to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 4.09 million units, above expectations for 3.88 million units and down from the 4.02 million units reported the prior month (revised up from 3.91 million units). Year-over-year existing sales were down -1.4%, versus a -4.4% annual decline the prior month. The Median Existing Home Price increased +0.3% from the prior year to $398,000, marking the 32nd consecutive month of year-over-year increases. The Inventory of Homes for Sale was up +2.4% from the prior month to 1.29 million units and is up +4.9% from a year ago. Unsold Inventory sits at a 3.8-month supply, up from 3.7 months the previous month and 3.6 a year ago. This remains below the 6.0-month supply typically associated with a more balanced market. The Median Time on Market for properties was 47 days, up from 46 in January and 42 a year ago. First-Time Buyers accounted for 34% of sales, up from 31% in January and a year ago. Cash Sales accounted for 31% of transactions versus 27% in January and 32% a year ago. For the month, sales fell in only one region, down -1.9% in the West, but rose +3.3% in the Northeast, +2.3% in the Midwest, and +0.2% in the South.
• January Housing Starts increased +7.2% month-over-month to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 1.487 million units, smashing expectations for a -4.5% decrease to 1.314 million units. That compares to a +4.8% increase, or 1.387 million units from the prior month (revised lower from +6.2% and 1.404 million units). Single-unit starts were down -2.8%, but Multi-family surged +29.1%. Housing starts peaked at 1.8 million in April 2022. Regionally, new construction single-unit starts were up +11.7% in the Midwest and +2.9% in the West Northeast, but down -4.6% in the South and -33.3% in the Northeast. Moving to Building Permits, one of the leading indicators tracked by the Conference Board and indicator of future construction activity, they decreased +5.4% to an annualized rate of 1.376 million units. That was below expectations for 1.410 million units and compared to the prior month’s unrevised +4.8% increase to 1.455 million units. Single-unit permits fell -0.9% while multi-family units were down -7.6%. Regionally, single-unit permits rose +2.5% in the Midwest and +0.8% in the South, but fell -5.1% in the West and -8.2% in the Northeast.  
• Weekly MBA Mortgage Applications rose +3.2% for the week ended March 6, after jumping +11.0% the prior week. The Purchase Index rose +7.8% after advancing +6.1% the prior week. The Refinance Index inched up +0.5% after rising +14.3% the prior week. The average 30-Year Mortgage Rate rose at 6.19% from 6.09% the prior week. 
• Weekly Initial Jobless Claims were down -1,000 to 213,000 for the week ended March 6, which was better than expectations for 215,0000. The prior week was revised higher by +1,000 to 214,000. The number of people already collecting unemployment claims (i.e., Continuing Claims) fell -21,000 to 1,850,000 for the week ended February 28, which was worse than expectations for 1,849,000. The prior week’s reading was revised higher to 1,871,000 from 1,868,000.

Asset Class Performance

Source: Bloomberg.
Asset‐class performance is presented by using market returns from an exchange‐traded fund (ETF) proxy that best represents its respective broad asset class. Returns shown are net of fund fees for and do not necessarily represent performance of specific mutual funds and/or exchange-traded funds recommended by The Retirement Planning Group. The performance of those funds may be substantially different from the performance of the broad asset classes and to proxy ETFs represented here. US Bonds (iShares Core US Aggregate Bond ETF); High‐Yield Bond (iShares iBoxx $ High Yield Corporate Bond ETF); Intl Bonds (Vanguard Total International Bond ETF); Large Growth (iShares Russell 1000 Growth ETF); Large Value (iShares Russell 1000 Value ETF); Mid Growth (iShares Russell Mid-Cap Growth ETF); Mid Value (iShares Russell Mid-Cap Value ETF); Small Growth (iShares Russell 2000 Growth ETF); Small Value (iShares Russell 2000 Value ETF); Intl Equity (iShares MSCI EAFE ETF); Emg Markets (iShares MSCI Emerging Markets ETF); and Real Estate (iShares US Real Estate ETF). The return displayed as “Allocation” is a weighted average of the ETF proxies shown as represented by 24% US Bonds, 10% International Bonds, 6% High Yield Bonds, 13.8% Large Growth, 13.8% Large Value, 3.6% Mid Growth, 3.6% Mid Value, 1.2% Small Growth, 1.2% Small Value, 16.8% International Stock, 4.2% Emerging Markets, 1.8% Real Estate.
* The term basis points (bps) refers to a common unit of measure for interest rates and other percentages in finance. One basis point is equal to 0.01%. Bond prices and bond yields are inversely related. As the price of a bond goes up, the yield decreases.