Weekly Market Update – March 27, 2026

Quick Takes

• Global financial markets had another volatile, headline-driven week with mixed results, as investors digested geopolitical developments, surging oil prices, and new signs of strain on consumers and businesses. 
• The S&P 500 fell -2.1% for the week, while the Nasdaq Composite dropped -3.2%. However, small- and mid-cap stocks bucked the broader trend, with the Russell 2000 rising +0.5% and the S&P MidCap 400 gaining +0.4% for the week.
• U.S. Treasuries ended the week slightly higher, but that calm masked some sharp moves earlier in the week. At one point, the 10-year Treasury yield climbed to 4.48%, its highest level since July 2025, before easing a bit to close the week at 4.43%. The Bloomberg U.S. Aggregate Bond Index fell -0.1%, its fourth straight weekly decline.

Source: Bloomberg. Data as of March 27, 2026.
Price Returns for Equity, Total Returns for Bonds.
* The term basis points (bps) refers to a common unit of measure for interest rates and other percentages in finance. One basis point is equal to 0.01%. Bond prices and bond yields are inversely related. As the price of a bond goes up, the yield decreases.

Markets see another volatile week as geopolitics, oil prices and inflation worries dominate

U.S. and global financial markets wrapped up a volatile, headline-driven week with mixed results, as investors weighed fast-changing geopolitical developments, surging oil prices, and new signs of strain on consumers and businesses. With few major economic reports on the calendar, sentiment swung sharply with each new headline tied to the conflict involving Iran, keeping both stocks and bonds on edge. Below is a breakdown of how the week unfolded across U.S. stocks, international markets, bonds, and the broader economic backdrop.

U.S. Stocks: Tech slides, small caps show resilience

U.S. equity markets finished the week mostly lower, extending a stretch of losses for large-cap stocks. Investors began the week on a hopeful note, pushing markets higher amid optimism that tensions in the Middle East could ease. That optimism faded as the week progressed, with conflicting headlines eroding confidence in a near-term diplomatic resolution.

By the closing bell Friday, the S&P 500 fell -2.1% for the week, while the Nasdaq Composite dropped -3.2%, marking a fifth straight weekly decline for both indexes. The tech-heavy Nasdaq officially slipped into correction territory on Thursday, falling more than -10% from its October 29 record close — the first correction for the index in a year.

Large technology stocks remained under pressure, while large-cap value stocks continued to outperform growth, marking the third consecutive week of value leadership. In fact, large growth stocks have outpaced large value in just two weeks so far this year.

Not all corners of the market struggled. Small- and mid-cap stocks bucked the broader trend, with the Russell 2000 rising +0.5% and the S&P MidCap 400 gaining +0.4% for the week. Both indexes snapped four-week losing streaks, suggesting investors may be rotating toward areas seen as less exposed to lofty valuations.

Sector performance reflected rising worries about energy costs and consumer spending. Consumer Discretionary stocks sold off sharply, plunging more than -3% on Friday alone after consumer sentiment deteriorated and gasoline prices jumped.

International Stocks: Modest declines, emerging markets lag

Overseas equity markets also struggled but generally fared better than U.S. stocks after lagging for three consecutive weeks. Developed-market stocks, as measured by the MSCI EAFE Index, edged down just -0.1%, following back-to-back weekly losses of more than -2%.

Performance varied widely by country. Switzerland and Italy led developed markets, each posting gains of about +0.6% and +0.7%. Japan and the U.K. also managed modest advances. In contrast, Australia fell -1.6% and Germany declined -0.8%.

Emerging markets underperformed, with the MSCI Emerging Markets Index sliding -1.8%, extending its losing streak to four weeks. Ongoing weakness in several large economies weighed heavily on the index.

• China, which makes up roughly 20% of the index, fell another -1.2%, marking seven negative weeks out of the last eight.
• India, about 13% of the index, dropped -2.5%, extending its downturn to seven straight weeks.
• South Korea, the third-largest weight at nearly 16%, sank -7.4%, more than reversing its prior week’s +5.6% rally.

Bonds: Yields surge, prices struggle

Bond markets were choppy as investors reassessed inflation risks tied to higher oil prices and geopolitical uncertainty. U.S. Treasuries ended the week slightly higher, but that calm masked some sharp moves earlier in the week.

Treasury yields surged to multi-month highs, reflecting shifting expectations around monetary policy. The 10-year Treasury yield climbed to 4.48%, its highest level since July 2025, before easing a bit to close the week at 4.43%. Meanwhile, the 2-year and 30-year yields also reached their strongest levels in months, and closed at 3.91% and 4.96% respectively. The markets appear to be pricing in the increased possibility of a future Federal Reserve rate hike.

Broad bond returns remained under pressure. The Bloomberg U.S. Aggregate Bond Index fell -0.1%, its fourth straight weekly decline, following a larger drop the prior week. International bonds fared worse, with the Bloomberg Global Aggregate ex-U.S. Index sinking -0.8%.

High-yield bonds led credit sectors lower, rising early in the week before giving back gains as overall market sentiment weakened. Elevated trading activity was partly driven by investor attention to potential corporate mergers and acquisitions.

Economics: Slowing growth, rising price pressures (sounds like stagflation)

Fresh economic data painted a mixed picture of the U.S. economy, showing slowing growth alongside intensifying inflation concerns.

Preliminary survey data from S&P Global showed that business activity growth moderated in March, with the Flash Composite PMI slipping to 51.4, an 11-month low. The slowdown was driven by weaker services activity, even as manufacturing output improved modestly.

More concerning for policymakers, inflation pressures accelerated. Input costs rose at the fastest pace in 10 months, and companies passed on higher prices at the quickest rate since 2022, largely due to higher energy costs and supply disruptions tied to Middle East tensions. Employment in the survey slipped for the first time in over a year, as firms trimmed overhead amid uncertainty.

Labor market data, however, remained relatively steady. Initial jobless claims came in at 210,000, near historic lows, while continuing claims dropped to their lowest level since May 2024 — a sign that layoffs remain limited.

Consumers, meanwhile, grew more pessimistic. The University of Michigan’s Consumer Sentiment Index fell to 53.3 in March, down from 56.6 in February. Short-term economic expectations dropped sharply, and year-ahead inflation expectations jumped to 3.8%, the largest monthly increase in nearly a year. Rising gas prices — now averaging $3.98 per gallon, up from $2.98 a month ago — are adding to household strain.

The Bottom Line

Markets remain highly sensitive to geopolitical headlines, particularly those tied to Iran, oil supply risks, and the potential for broader conflict. While the U.S. economy continues to show resilience in jobs, rising energy costs and mounting inflation pressure are weighing on consumer confidence and business outlooks. Until there is more clarity on both inflation and global stability, volatility is likely to remain a defining feature for investors.

Chart of the Week

The final reading of the March University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index declined to 53.3 from the preliminary reading of 55.5 and the final level of 56.6 in February. It was expected to come in at 54.0. In the same period a year ago, the index stood at 57.0. The Current Economic Conditions component dipped to 55.8 from the preliminary reading of 57.8 and the final 56.6 the prior month. The Consumer Expectations component moved down to 51.7 from the preliminary reading of 54.4 and is down from 56.6 from the prior month. One-year inflation expectations rose to 3.8% from the preliminary 3.4%, which is where it finished February as well. The five-year inflation expectations held steady at 3.2% from the preliminary release, and are down slightly from the 3.3% reading the prior month. The bottom line is that March consumer sentiment fell from the preliminary readings as the Iran conflict picked up from two weeks earlier, with large drops in sentiment in the middle- and higher-income cohorts who were impacted by higher gas prices and lower stock prices. However, despite the pickup in year-ahead inflation expectations they don’t indicate concern about dramatic spikes. This time last year, the one-year inflation expectations were at 5%, essentially double the actual current level of the Consumer Price Index (CPI) inflation. The survey period ran through March 9, and the Iran conflict started on February 28, so it reflects about 10 days of the military action. “These patterns suggest that, at this time, consumers may not expect recent negative developments to persist far into the future,” said survey Director Joanne Hsu. “These views are subject to change, however, if the Iran conflict becomes protracted or if higher energy prices pass through to overall inflation.”

Wholesale Prices Rose Much More Than Expected in February

University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index (Mar. 2010 – Mar. 2026)

Source: Briefing.com.

The Week Ahead

We will have a holiday-shortened week with stock markets closed for Good Friday and bond markets closing early that day. Despite the Good Friday holiday, the March Employment Situation Report will still be released, with Bloomberg showing economists expecting 60K Nonfarm Payroll additions and the Unemployment Rate to hold at 4.4%. Ahead of that, the economic calendar will feature a bunch of housing market data, with Construction Spending on Monday, home price indexes from S&P Cotality and the FHFA on Tuesday, and weekly MBA Mortgage Applications on Wednesday. Other notable releases include: Consumer Confidence and JOLTS job openings on Tuesday; the advance reading of Retail Sales and U.S. manufacturing PMIs from ISM and S&P Global on Wednesday; Trade Balance on Thursday; and U.S. services PMIs from S&P Global on Friday (the ISM services PMI are delayed until the following Monday).

Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell’s appearance Monday at 10:30 a.m. ET will also be closely watched for signals on monetary policy. New York Fed president John Williams will speak on the economy that afternoon. On Tuesday Chicago Fed President Austan Goolsbee will deliver opening remarks at an event and later in the day, Fed governor Michael Barr will discuss stablecoins in an appearance, and Fed vice chair Michelle Bowman will speak at a Consumer Bankers Association conference. Fed governor Barr will also participate in a discussion about AI and consumer issues on Wednesday.

On the corporate earnings front, Nike remains one of few S&P 500 companies left to report fourth quarter earnings and will do so on Tuesday. Other reports from Conagra Brands, Lamb Weston, McCormick & Co., and Cal-Maine Foods will provide additional insight into consumer spending.

Additionally, Tesla and other automakers will report monthly delivery data and auto executives will gather in New York for a conference where higher gasoline prices will be top-of-mind.

Did You Know?

TAX REFUNDS – After accounting for inflation, individual income tax refunds are up about +16% year-over-year, though the current filing season is far from a record versus prior years: it’s the same size as 2022 but significantly smaller than years prior to that.  (Source: Bespoke)

S&P LOSING STREAK – The S&P 500 finished down -2.1%, its fifth straight weekly loss. That is the longest losing streak in nearly four years. Back then the Federal Reserve embarked on an aggressive campaign to raise interest rates to combat inflation that was running at its hottest level in roughly 40 years. The S&P 500 fell for seven straight weeks through May 20, 2022. There have been 20 prior 5-week losing streaks since 1970. (Source: The Wall Street Journal)

SELLOFF DURATION – The current S&P selloff is like some of those in the past, but it has been less intense. The S&P 500 has lost roughly -7.8% over the past five weeks. But one reason why many investors are frustrated with this current selloff is because unlike last year’s “buy-the-dip” selloff, which lasted 34 days, the current drop is already 42 days old. Still, this year’s -7.8% drop (so far) is less than half the -18.9% decline last year. (Source: Bloomberg, The Wall Street Journal)

This Week in History

SILVER CRASH – On March 27, 1980, Texas oil barons Nelson Bunker Hunt and W. Herbert Hunt failed spectacularly to corner the market in silver. After the brothers drove the price up, new supplies came flooding into the market, catching the Hunts by surprise. In a single day, silver plunged from $21.62 to $10.80 an ounce. (Source: The Wall Street Journal)

Economic Review

• The preliminary “flash” S&P Global U.S. Purchasing Managers Index (PMI) indicated the slowest business growth in almost a year in March as weaker New Orders and a spike in Prices followed the outbreak of war in the Middle East. The overall S&P Global U.S. Composite PMI slipped to 51.4, down from 51.9 the month before. That was below Wall Street expectations to remain at 59.1 but still in expansion territory for 38 consecutive months now (results above 50 signal economic expansion). The Manufacturing PMI improved to 52.4 from 51.6 the prior month, beating expectations for 51.5. Meanwhile the Services PMI softened to 51.1, down from 51.7 the prior month, and below expectations to come in at 52.0. Manufacturing New Orders growth was the strongest since October and manufacturing Production accelerated modestly. In the services sector, New Orders growth was little changed and below the pace of the last year. A similar divergence was also seen regarding Output Expectations, with a weaker outlook among service providers contrasting with a more upbeat perspective among manufacturers, the latter buoyed in part by fewer tariff-related worries. Average Input Prices rose at a sharp rate again, posting the largest monthly increase for ten months and feeding through to the largest increase in average Output Prices since August 2022. Higher prices were widely linked to the war-related spike in energy costs and tightening supply conditions. Employment fell for the first time in over a year as firms generally sought to reduce overheads in the uncertain economic climate. Although only modest, the drop in employment was the first recorded since February 2025 and reflected a growing caution to add to headcounts across both manufacturing and services. Manufacturing employment rose only marginally and at the weakest rate for eight months, whereas a decline in service sector staffing levels was reported.
• The Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago reported that US economic activity decreased in February, with its Chicago Fed National Activity Index (CFNAI) falling to -0.11 from +0.20 in January (revised up from +0.18). That was far worse than Wall Street expectations for a reading of +0.16 (readings below zero indicate below-trend-growth in the national economic activity). Two of the four broad categories of indicators used to construct the index decreased from January, and three categories made negative contributions in February. The Production and Income category dropped to -0.01, down from +0.21 the prior month. The Employment, Unemployment, and Hours category detracted -0.10, a decrease from +0.02 the prior month. The Personal Consumption and Housing category contributed +0.01, up from -0.02 the prior month. The Sales, Orders, and Inventories category contribution was -0.01, unchanged from the prior month. Overall breadth of the index deteriorated with just 31 of the 85 individual indicators making positive contributions, versus 47 the prior month, while 38 made negative contributions. Improvements in the individual indicators were good as well, with 57 indicators improving, while 54 indicators made negative contributions. The CFNAI three-month moving average improved to -0.01 from -0.02 the prior month. During the last 20 years, there has been a 91% correlation between the three-month index level and the quarterly change in real GDP. 
• Imports Prices were up +1.3% in February, better than expectations for a +0.6% rise and the largest increase in nearly four years. That was up from +0.6% the prior month after being revised higher from +0.2%. Import Prices ex Petroleum were up +1.2%, above expectations for a +0.4% rise and up for +0.8% the previous month (after being revised up from +0.4%). Year-over-year, the cost of imports accelerated +1.3%, above expectations for a +0.4% increase, and up from the +0.3% annual rate the prior month (revised up from -0.1%). Import prices exclude duties, such as tariffs imposed on imports by the Trump administration, as well as transportation costs. Petroleum import prices increased +2.5% in February, while nonpetroleum imports prices were up +1.2%.  Export Prices were up +1.5%, the most since May 2022 and above expectations for a +0.6% rise, which was the unrevised increase the prior month. Export prices accelerated to +3.5% over the past year, up from the +2.6% annual rate reported the previous month (unrevised).
• The Commerce Department reported Construction Spending for January declined -0.3%, down from +0.8% in December after it was revised sharply higher from the originally reported +0.3%. On a year-over-year basis, Construction Spending was up +1.0%, unchanged from the annual rate in December. Total Private Construction was down -0.6% in January following a +1.0% increase in December. Total Public Construction was up +0.6% for the latest month, up from -0.1% the previous month. Private Residential Spending dropped -0.8% in January compared to +2.5% in December, while Private Nonresidential Spending was down -0.4% versus a -0.8% fall in December. The report showed that Single-Family Construction was up +1.6% in December following +0.6% the month before. The key takeaway is that private residential construction spending accounted for most of the weakness, which may be a sign of pressure from higher interest rates.
• The Kansas City Fed Manufacturing Survey increased to +11 in March from an unrevised +5 reading the prior month. The composite index is an average of the Production, New Orders, Employment, Supplier Delivery Time, and Raw Materials Inventory indexes. The month-over-month indexes were all positive except for New Orders for Exports. Production inched higher to +11 from +10 and Volume of New Orders jumped to +15 points from +7. The Employment index rebounded into positive territory from -7 to +6. The Prices Paid index fell to +37 from +42 while the Prices Received index inched up to +19 from +18. The Kansas City Fed Service Sector Outlook Survey jumped to +15 from +6 and is now up for four straight months to its highest level since September 2022.
• The Richmond Fed Manufacturing Survey improved to neutral (0.0) in March from an unrevised -10 the prior month, beating expectations to come in at -8.  All three subcomponent indexes declined, and all remain in contraction (negative) territory. The New Orders components improved to +4.0 from -9 and the Shipments component increased to -2.0 from -13. The Employment index rose to -2.0 from -7. The growth in Prices Paid eased slightly while Prices Received accelerated. The Richmond Fed Service Sector Survey also increased, up to +2 from an unrevised -10 from the prior month, better than expectations to improve to -8.
• Weekly MBA Mortgage Applications sank -10.5% for the week ending March 20, after falling -10.9% the prior week. The Purchase Index fell -5.4% after advancing +0.9% the prior week. The Refinance Index sank -14.6% after dropping -18.5% the prior week. The average 30-Year Mortgage Rate rose to 6.43% from 6.30% the prior week. That’s the highest level since October 3, 2025.
• Weekly Initial Jobless Claims were down -5,000 to 210,000 for the week ending March 21, which matched expectations and was the lowest level in 17 months. The prior week was unrevised. The number of people already collecting unemployment claims (i.e., Continuing Claims) fell -32,000 to 1,819,000 for the week ending March 14, which was better than expectations for 1,849,000. The prior week’s reading was revised lower to 1,851,000 from 1,857,000. The low weekly jobless and continuous claims data indicate little immediate stress on the U.S. labor market.

 

Asset Class Performance

Source: Bloomberg.
Asset‐class performance is presented by using market returns from an exchange‐traded fund (ETF) proxy that best represents its respective broad asset class. Returns shown are net of fund fees for and do not necessarily represent performance of specific mutual funds and/or exchange-traded funds recommended by The Retirement Planning Group. The performance of those funds may be substantially different from the performance of the broad asset classes and to proxy ETFs represented here. US Bonds (iShares Core US Aggregate Bond ETF); High‐Yield Bond (iShares iBoxx $ High Yield Corporate Bond ETF); Intl Bonds (Vanguard Total International Bond ETF); Large Growth (iShares Russell 1000 Growth ETF); Large Value (iShares Russell 1000 Value ETF); Mid Growth (iShares Russell Mid-Cap Growth ETF); Mid Value (iShares Russell Mid-Cap Value ETF); Small Growth (iShares Russell 2000 Growth ETF); Small Value (iShares Russell 2000 Value ETF); Intl Equity (iShares MSCI EAFE ETF); Emg Markets (iShares MSCI Emerging Markets ETF); and Real Estate (iShares US Real Estate ETF). The return displayed as “Allocation” is a weighted average of the ETF proxies shown as represented by 24% US Bonds, 10% International Bonds, 6% High Yield Bonds, 13.8% Large Growth, 13.8% Large Value, 3.6% Mid Growth, 3.6% Mid Value, 1.2% Small Growth, 1.2% Small Value, 16.8% International Stock, 4.2% Emerging Markets, 1.8% Real Estate.
* The term basis points (bps) refers to a common unit of measure for interest rates and other percentages in finance. One basis point is equal to 0.01%. Bond prices and bond yields are inversely related. As the price of a bond goes up, the yield decreases.