Weekly Market Update – May 1, 2026

Quick Takes

• U.S. stocks pushed higher into record territory last week, powered by blockbuster tech earnings, fresh hopes for a cease-fire overseas, and generally upbeat economic signals. The S&P 500 and Russell 2000 each rose +0.9%, while the tech‑heavy Nasdaq was up +1.1%.
• Bond markets felt the pressure as rising energy prices and renewed inflation concerns pushed yields higher. U.S. Treasuries sold off for most of the week, a move likely reinforced by hawkish signals from the Federal Reserve’s latest policy meeting.
• Economic data remains supportive, with manufacturing activity still strong in April, consumer sentiment surprising to the upside, housing prices showing modest cooling, and weekly jobless claims falling to a 57‑year low.

Source: Bloomberg. Data as of May 1, 2026.
Price Returns for Equity, Total Returns for Bonds.
* The term basis points (bps) refers to a common unit of measure for interest rates and other percentages in finance. One basis point is equal to 0.01%. Bond prices and bond yields are inversely related. As the price of a bond goes up, the yield decreases.

Wall Street caps another strong week as tech drives markets

U.S. stocks pushed higher into record territory last week, powered by blockbuster tech earnings, fresh hopes for a cease-fire overseas, and generally upbeat economic signals. At the same time, rising oil prices rippled through bonds and inflation expectations, while international markets delivered a more mixed picture. Below is a breakdown of the week’s key market and economic developments.

U.S. Stocks: Records fall as tech leads the charge

The rally in U.S. equities rolled on, with both the S&P 500 and the Nasdaq Composite closing at fresh record highs. For the S&P 500, it marked a fifth consecutive weekly gain — the longest winning streak since 2024 — and capped off a stunning +14% rise over the past month.

Technology stocks once again did much of the heavy lifting. Strong earnings from Apple, a surge in chipmakers, and convincing evidence that massive investments in artificial intelligence are paying off at the largest cloud providers helped keep investor enthusiasm high. Intel stood out as one of the week’s top performers, while Qualcomm and Sandisk each posted double‑digit gains.

For the week, the S&P 500 rose +0.9%, matching the gain for small‑cap stocks in the Russell 2000. The tech‑heavy Nasdaq did slightly better, climbing +1.1%. Large‑cap stocks outpaced small‑caps overall, and value stocks beat growth shares, partly thanks to another leg higher in oil prices that lifted the energy sector.

Earnings strength is no longer just a tech story. With about 63% of S&P 500 companies having reported first‑quarter results, blended earnings per share are up an extraordinary +27.1% — the strongest growth since 2021. Technology earnings alone have jumped roughly +50%, but resilient consumer spending and signs of a cyclical upswing are helping results broaden across sectors. In aggregate, companies have beaten earnings estimates by +21%, far above the five‑year average of +7.3%.

International Stocks: Developed markets rebound, emerging markets slip

Stock markets outside the U.S. produced mixed results. Developed‑market stocks, measured by the MSCI EAFE Index, rose +0.9%, recovering from a sharp decline the week before. Japan led the rebound with a +1.7% gain, while Italy and Spain advanced +1.3% and +1.0%, respectively.

Several major central banks kept policy steady. The European Central Bank and the Bank of England left base rates unchanged at 2.0% and 3.75%, while the Bank of Japan also held rates steady, at 0.75%, but signaled that further tightening could be ahead.

Emerging‑market stocks lagged, with the MSCI Emerging Markets Index slipping -0.5%. Losses in China (-1.6%) and Taiwan (-1.0%) outweighed a solid +2.5% gain in South Korea. Meanwhile, the U.S. dollar edged lower, with the U.S. Dollar Index down -0.4% for the week.

Bonds: Yields climb as inflation worries resurface

Bond markets felt the pressure as rising energy prices and renewed inflation concerns pushed yields higher. U.S. Treasuries sold off for most of the week, a move likely reinforced by hawkish signals from the Federal Reserve’s latest policy meeting.

By week’s end:

• 2‑year Treasury yield: up +10 basis points to 3.88%
• 10‑year Treasury yield: up +7 basis points to 4.37%
• 30‑year Treasury yield: up +5 basis points to 4.96%

(Bond prices and yields move in opposite directions.)

Investment‑grade corporate bonds also posted negative returns, performing slightly worse than Treasuries. High‑yield bonds wobbled early in the week but recovered enough to finish with a small gain. Overall, the Bloomberg U.S. Aggregate Bond Index fell -0.4% for the week. International bonds fared better, with the Bloomberg Global Aggregate ex‑U.S. Index rising +0.4%.

Economy & Policy: Strong data, divided Fed, and oil take center stage

Economic data leaned supportive. Manufacturing activity remained strong in April, even as price pressures rose. Consumer sentiment surprised to the upside, with the Conference Board’s Consumer Confidence Index climbing to 92.8 — the highest reading of the year. The housing market showed modest cooling, as the Case‑Shiller national home price index rose +0.7% year over year, slightly slower than January’s pace. Meanwhile, weekly jobless claims fell to 189,000, a 57‑year low.

The Federal Reserve kept its policy rate unchanged at 3.50%–3.75% for a third straight meeting, but the decision drew unusual attention because of deep internal divisions. Four policymakers dissented — the highest level since 1992 — underscoring uncertainty about the economic outlook. Fed Chair Jerome Powell also surprised markets by saying he plans to remain at the Fed as a governor for an unspecified period to help defend the institution’s independence.

Energy markets added another layer of complexity. Oil prices surged as tensions in the Strait of Hormuz continued. West Texas Intermediate crude jumped about 8% to around $102 a barrel, while Brent briefly touched $126. The spike was fueled by canceled talks between the U.S. and Iran, as well as news that the United Arab Emirates plans to exit OPEC and OPEC+, seeking more flexibility to use its expanded oil production capacity.

Finally, on the fiscal policy front, the U.S. House of Representatives passed a bill to fund most of the Department of Homeland Security, ending a 76‑day partial shutdown.

The Bottom Line

Strong earnings, resilient consumers, and AI‑driven optimism are keeping stocks at record highs, but surging oil prices and rising yields are reminding investors that inflation risks remain firmly in focus.

Chart of the Week

The U.S. economy grew at a +2.0% pace in the first quarter according to the Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) advance estimate of real Gross Domestic Product (GDP) for the fourth quarter 2026. That was an increase from the +0.5% annualized rate in the fourth quarter of 2025, but below the +2.3% growth Wall Street was expecting. However, Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE), the main engine of the economy, increased +1.6% in Q1 versus +1.9% in Q4. That beat expectations for a +1.4% rise but was down from the +1.9% increase in Q4. The PCE component contributed +1.08 percentage points to real GDP growth in the first quarter, or just over half the total GDP increase. Exports jumped +12.9% in Q1 versus a decline of -3.2% in Q4, and Imports soared +21.4% after declining -1.0% in Q4. As a result, Net Exports detracted -1.30 percentage points to Q4 GDP growth. After a -5.6% decline in Q4, Government spending increased +4.4% in Q1, which translates to a +0.73 percentage point contribution to Q4 real GDP growth. Gross Private Domestic Investment jumped +8.7% in Q1 following a +2.3% increase in Q4, resulting in a +1.48 percentage point contribution to Q1 GDP growth. The resilience of private activity was seen in Real Final Sales to Private Domestic Purchasers—a measure of underlying Private–Sector Demand—rose +2.5% in Q1, up from a +1.8% increase in Q4. Real final sales of domestic product, which excludes the change in private inventories, increased +1.6% versus a +0.3% increase in Q4. The key takeaway from the report is that the growth was driven by Gross Private Domestic Investment, which contributed +1.48 percentage points to Q1 GDP growth, and Personal Consumption Expenditures, which contributed +1.08 percentage points to the GDP increase.

First Read of Q1 GDP Comes in at +2%

Gross Domestic Product (GDP), change from previous quarter

Source: Commerce Department, Wall Street Journal.
Notes: Seasonally and inflation-adjusted at annual rates

The Week Ahead

Like last week, this week’s economic calendar remains busy. The April Employment Situation Report from the Bureau of Labor Statistics on Friday will be the week’s highlight. Preliminary May Consumer Sentiment from the University of Michigan and Wholesale Trade data from the Census Bureau will also be released Friday. Thursday has the Consumer Credit report from the Federal Reserve, Construction Spending by the Commerce Department, and the weekly jobless claims from the Department of Labor. Tuesday is the busiest day of the week, with Trade Balance, U.S. Services PMIs from ISM and S&P Global, New Home Sales, JOLTS Job Openings, and Building Permits. That is sandwiched by single release days on Monday and Wednesday, with Factory Orders and weekly MBA Mortgage Applications, respectively.

The earnings season isn’t over yet. A slew of quarterly earnings results will be reported this week. Monday’s is headlined by Palantir Technologies, Pinterest, and ON Semiconductor. Advanced Micro Devices, Shopify, Pfizer, and PayPal report on Tuesday. Walt Disney, Arm Holdings, DoorDash, Uber Technologies, and Novo Nordisk will follow on Wednesday. Thursday’s slate includes McDonald’s and Airbnb. Wendy’s and Brookfield Asset Management will wrap things up on Friday.

Did You Know?

20%+ FOR TECH – After falling -18.4% from its Oct 29, 2025 high to its March 30, 2026 low, the S&P 500 technology sector surged +22.8% over a 16-trading-day stretch through April 22. Since 1990, the tech sector has had 30 prior 16-day rallies of 20%+, and its average move over the ensuing month was a further gain of +4.8%. (Source: Bespoke).

COOK OUT – Apple announced that Tim Cook would retire as CEO effective September 1. During Cook’s tenure as CEO, which began in August 2011, Apple shares rallied more than 1,900%. Apple’s annualized gain of +22.8% during this time is nearly +10 percentage points better than the +13.0% annualized gain seen for the S&P 500. (Source: Bloomberg)

RINSE AND REPEAT – The S&P 500 was up +18% in the first 314 trading days of President Trump’s 2nd term (through 4/21). In the first 314 trading days of Trump’s first term (Inauguration Day 2017 through 4/21/18), the S&P 500 was up the exact same amount. (Source: Bespoke)

This Week in History

REAL ESTATE DEAL – On April 30, 1803, President Thomas Jefferson signed the Louisiana Purchase, paying France $15 million for 828,000 square miles of territory. In the stroke of a pen, the U.S. nearly doubled in size. It financed the deal by borrowing $11.25 million in 6% bonds from European investors. (Source: The Wall Street Journal)

Economic Review

• The Institute for Supply Management’s (ISM) Manufacturing PMI was unchanged at 52.7% in April, below expectations for 53.2%, but marking the best level since August 2022. That is now four straight months solidly above 50%, following 11 consecutive months below 50.0% (above 50% indicate economic expansion, levels below 50% indicate contraction). New Orders, a sign of future demand, increased to 54.1% from 53.5% the prior month. The Production index slipped to 53.4% from 55.1% in March. The New Export Orders index slipped to 47.9% from 49.9%. The Employment component fell to 46.4% from 48.7% the previous month. Regarding the inflationary aspect of the report, the Prices index jumped to 84.6% from 78.3% the prior month, which is the highest level since April 2022. The key takeaway from the report is that manufacturing activity continues a surprisingly strong resurgence, but the Prices index continues to surge higher. 
• The final reading for the S&P Global US Manufacturing PMI rose to 54.5 in April, up from 54.0 the month before where it was expected to remain. That marks the eighth consecutive month of expansion and the strongest rate of expansion since May 2022. Higher Output (Production) and New Orders drove the growth, accelerating to their highest levels since April 2022. Purchasing Activity rose sharply, also at the steepest increase in four years. Finished Goods Inventories saw their first net increase in three months, and Business Confidence reached its highest level since February 2025. On the downside, Employment fell for the first time in nine months, the largest drop in over a year and a half. Exports declined for the 11th consecutive month, pressured by tariffs and geopolitical tensions. Input Prices hit a 10-month high, and Output Prices rose at the fastest pace since June 2025. The bottom line is that April showed further robust manufacturing, led by strong orders, output, and confidence, but tempered by export weakness, employment declines, and persistent cost pressures.
• The cost of goods and services rose +0.7% in February, matching expectations and up from +0.4% the previous month (unrevised). For the year, the Personal Consumption Expenditure (PCE) Deflator (aka PCE Price Index) was up +3.5%, matching expectations and up from +2.8% the prior month (unrevised). The Core PCE Price Index, which excludes food and energy and is the Fed’s preferred inflation gauge, was up +0.3% for the month, matching expectations and down a tick from the prior month’s +0.4% unrevised reading. Year-over-year, the Core-PCE Price Index was up +3.2%, in line with expectations and up from +3.0% (unrevised) the prior month. The key takeaway from the report is that the Core PCE Price Index, the Fed’s preferred inflation gauge, decreased to +3.0%, but that was before the Iran war and isn’t likely to influence the Fed. The PCE Index for Goods was up +1.4% in March after increasing +0.7% in February, and year-over-year it was up +0.7% versus +1.8% in February. The PCE Price Index for Services was up +0.3% in March after increasing +0.2% in February, and year-over-year it rose +2.8% versus +3.1% in February. 
• The Conference Board Consumer Confidence Index increased to 92.8 in April from an upwardly revised 92.2 in March (originally 91.8). That was far better than Wall Street expectations to come in at 89.0. In the same period a year ago, the index stood at 85.7. The Present Situation gauge dipped to 123.8 from 124.1 the prior month (revised higher from 123.3). The Expectations gauge — which reflects consumers’ six-month outlook — rose to 72.2 from an upwardly revised 71.0 (originally 70.9). Sustained levels below 80 on the Expectations index can signal a recession within the next year, while in good times the index can top 120 or more. 
• The Census Bureau reported preliminary Durable Goods Orders for long-lasting items (such as televisions, appliances, and transportation equipment) increased +0.8% in March, following an upwardly revised -1.2% drop (from -1.3%) the prior month. That was above Wall Street expectations to rise +0.5. Durable Goods Orders Excluding Transportation were up +0.9%, above expectations for a +0.4% reading but down from the prior month’s +1.2% increase (revised down from +0.9%). The important Core Capital Goods Orders (capital goods excluding volatile sectors like transportation and defense), a proxy for business spending, jumped +3.3%, smashing expectations for a +0.5% gain and the upwardly revised +1.6% reading the month before (originally +0.7%). Core Capital Goods Shipments, which are factored into GDP, increased +1.2%, double expectations for a +0.6% gain and roughly in line with the upwardly revised +1.3% reading the month before (originally +1.0%). The bottom line is that there was a large jump in Core Capital Goods Orders, a proxy for business spending, which likely indicates an acceleration in AI-related expenditures. 
• Personal Income rose +0.6% in March, twice the expectations to rise +0.3% up from the positively revised 0.0% reading the prior month (originally -0.1%). Real Disposable Income was down -0.1% month-over-month, after dropping -0.4% the prior month. Personal Spending jumped +0.9% in March, matching expectations and up from +0.6% the prior month (after it was revised down from +0.5%). After adjusting for inflation, Real Personal Spending was +0.2% for the month, below expectations to be +0.3% which is where it was the prior month after being revised higher from +0.1%. The Personal Savings Rate, as a percentage of disposable personal income, declined to +3.6% from +3.9% the previous month. The key takeaway is that spending has remained solid in the face of stubbornly high inflation.
• The Conference Board released its Leading Economic Index® (LEI) for February and March on Thursday. In March the LEI rose by +0.3%, an increase from the upwardly revised 0.0% reading in January (originally reported at -0.1%), above Wall Street expectations for 0.0%. In March the LEI dropped -0.6% versus expectations to dip just -0.2%. Five of the 10 indicators advanced in March. “After rising in February, the US LEI pulled back sharply in March, as building permits declined and consumer expectations and stock prices weakened,” said Justyna Zabinska-La Monica, Senior Manager, Business Cycle Indicators, at The Conference Board. The Conference Board Coincident Economic Index (CEI) was unchanged in both February and March and follows a very slight downward revision in January. The Conference Board Lagging Economic Index (LAG) inched up by +0.2% in February and +0.3% in March.  
• The Employment Cost Index (ECI) rose a seasonally adjusted +0.9% in the first quarter, a tick above the expected +0.8%, and up from +0.7% for the fourth quarter. The ECI is the Federal Reserve’s preferred measure of wage gains. Year-over-Year the index was up +3.4%, unchanged from the prior quarter. That matches the slowest annual rate since the second quarter of 2021. Still the Fed wants to see costs slow even further. Wages and Salaries account for about 70% of compensation costs and it accelerated +0.1 percentage point to +0.8% for the quarter, and +0.1 percentage point on an annual basis to +3.4%. The bottom line is that it was an inflation-friendly report as wages and salaries over the last 12 months are barely running ahead of inflation.
• The Chicago Purchasing Managers Index (PMI), a barometer for the region’s business and manufacturing conditions (also known as the Chicago Business Barometer), sank to 49.2 in April from an unrevised 52.8 in March. That was well short of Wall Street expectations for a 54.9 reading and put it in contraction territory (readings below the 50 level indicate contraction). The fall was driven by declines in Order Backlogs, New Orders, Supplier Deliveries, and Production. A rise in Employment provided some offset. Order Backlogs contracted -11.4 points, back in contractionary territory after one month above 50. New Orders fell -6.5 points, back below 50 after three months in expansionary territory. Supplier Deliveries trimmed -3.7 points, though the index remains in expansion for a fifteenth consecutive month. Production softened -1.3 points but remained in expansionary territory for the fourth straight month. Employment rebounded +7.9 points, mostly unwinding March’s sharp drop, but remained below 50. Prices Paid increased +5.4 points to the highest level since June.
• The Texas Manufacturing Outlook Survey was mixed in April, with the General Business Activity falling to -2.3 from an unrevised -0.2 the prior month. That was well below expectation for a reading of +0.9. However, the Production sub-index, a key measure of the state’s manufacturing activity, jumped +12 points to +19.0, an above average pace of output. Other measures of manufacturing activity also showed signs of faster growth for the month. The Capacity Utilization index moved up +13 points to +19.8, the New Orders index increased +4 points to +9.9, and the Shipments index rose +13 points to +15.0. On the other hand, Employment continued to be flat, unchanged at -0.9. Workweeks were a bit longer in April though, with Hours Worked up to +4.0 from +0.9. Prices Paid rose to +37.0 from +32.7 while Prices Received jumped +9 points to 27.6, its highest level since July 2022. Indicators of Future Conditions Six Months From Now remain optimistic. The Texas Service Sector General Business Activity improved to -9.9 from -13.3 the prior month (unrevised), better than expectations to come in at -12.0. Indicators of Future Conditions Six Months From Now for the service sector remained solidly positive, reflecting results similar to the headline series averages.
• The Richmond Fed Manufacturing Survey improved to +3 in April from an unrevised 0.0 the prior month, beating expectations to come in at +1. Two of its three component indexes rose in April: New Orders to +8 from +4 and Employment to 0 from −2. Meanwhile, the Shipments index was unchanged at −2 in April. The average growth rate of Prices Paid increased slightly, from 6.11 to 6.40, while average growth in Prices Received decreased slightly in April to 4.73 from 4.85. On the other hand, the Richmond Fed Service Sector Survey decreased, down to -6 from an unrevised +2 the prior month, much worse than expectations to fall to 0.0.
• According to the S&P Cotality Case-Shiller 20-City Home Price Index, U.S. housing prices slipped -0.05% in February, down from a positively revised +0.20% the prior month (originally +0.16%). That was below expectations for a +0.15% gain and broke a six-month streak of price gains. Of the 20 cities tracked by the index, six declined month-over-month with Minneapolis down the most (-0.25%), followed by Boston (-0.15%), while San Francisco (+1.90%) and Chicago (+1.09%) saw the biggest increases. On a year-over-year (YoY) basis, the 20-city index was up +0.90%, below expectations for a +1.12% rise and down from a +1.19% annual increase the month before (revised higher from +1.18%). Chicago reported the highest annual gain (+5.04%), followed by New York (+4.74%), while Denver was the lowest annual return (-2.18%), and Tampa the next worst (-2.06%). “More than half of major U.S. metropolitan markets posted year-over-year price declines in February, signaling that the housing slowdown has broadened well beyond its Sun Belt origins,” said Nicholas Godec at S&P Dow Jones Indices.
• The competing Federal Housing Finance Agency (FHFA) House Price Index (HPI) showed US home prices were flat (0.0%) in February, down from the +0.2% increase the prior month (revised higher from +0.1%). The results were just below Wall Street expectations for a +0.1% increase. The government data showed home prices were up +1.7% year-over-year, up from the prior month’s +1.6% annual rate. House prices were up in 6 of the 9 regions on a monthly basis, and 7 of 9 were up on an annual basis. The monthly changes ranged from 1.1% in the Mountain division to +0.6% in the South Atlantic division. The 12-month changes ranged from -0.7% in the Mountain division to +4.2% in the Middle Atlantic division.
• March Housing Starts increased +10.8% month-over-month to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 1.502 million units, smashing expectations for a -0.4% decrease to 1.390 million units, and marking a 25-month high. That compares to a -3.0% decrease, or 1.538 million units from the prior month (unrevised). Single-unit starts were up +9.1% and Multi-family surged +13.3%. Housing starts peaked at 1.8 million in April 2022. Regionally, new construction single-unit starts were up +1.3% in the Midwest, +11.1% in the Northeast, +8.5% in the South, and +18.1% in the West. Moving to Building Permits, one of the leading indicators tracked by the Conference Board and indicator of future construction activity, they sank -10.8% to an annualized rate of 1.372 million units. That was below expectations for 1.390 million units and compared to the prior month’s unrevised +11.0% increase to 1.538 million units. Single-unit permits fell -0.9% while multi-family units were down -21.6%. Regionally, single-unit permits fell -2.3% in the Midwest, -4.5% in the South, and -5.5% in the West but rose +8.0% in the Northeast.
• Weekly MBA Mortgage Applications slipped -1.6% for the week ending April 24, after jumping +7.9% the prior week. The Purchase Index rose +1.2% following a +10.1% jump the prior week. The Refinance Index fell -4.4% after a +5.8% increase the prior week. The average 30-Year Mortgage Rate ticked up to 6.37% from 6.35% the prior week.
• Weekly Initial Jobless Claims fell -26,000 to 189,000 for the week ending April 24, which was far better than expectations for 212,000 and marks the lowest level since 1969. The prior week was revised up by +1,000. The number of people already collecting unemployment claims (i.e., Continuing Claims) fell by -23,000 to 1,785,000 for the week ending April 17, which was better than expectations for 1,790,000. The prior week’s reading was revised lower by -13,000.

Asset Class Performance

Source: Bloomberg.
Asset‐class performance is presented by using market returns from an exchange‐traded fund (ETF) proxy that best represents its respective broad asset class. Returns shown are net of fund fees for and do not necessarily represent performance of specific mutual funds and/or exchange-traded funds recommended by The Retirement Planning Group. The performance of those funds may be substantially different from the performance of the broad asset classes and to proxy ETFs represented here. US Bonds (iShares Core US Aggregate Bond ETF); High‐Yield Bond (iShares iBoxx $ High Yield Corporate Bond ETF); Intl Bonds (Vanguard Total International Bond ETF); Large Growth (iShares Russell 1000 Growth ETF); Large Value (iShares Russell 1000 Value ETF); Mid Growth (iShares Russell Mid-Cap Growth ETF); Mid Value (iShares Russell Mid-Cap Value ETF); Small Growth (iShares Russell 2000 Growth ETF); Small Value (iShares Russell 2000 Value ETF); Intl Equity (iShares MSCI EAFE ETF); Emg Markets (iShares MSCI Emerging Markets ETF); and Real Estate (iShares US Real Estate ETF). The return displayed as “Allocation” is a weighted average of the ETF proxies shown as represented by 24% US Bonds, 10% International Bonds, 6% High Yield Bonds, 13.8% Large Growth, 13.8% Large Value, 3.6% Mid Growth, 3.6% Mid Value, 1.2% Small Growth, 1.2% Small Value, 16.8% International Stock, 4.2% Emerging Markets, 1.8% Real Estate.
* The term basis points (bps) refers to a common unit of measure for interest rates and other percentages in finance. One basis point is equal to 0.01%. Bond prices and bond yields are inversely related. As the price of a bond goes up, the yield decreases.