Weekly Market Update – November 21, 2025

Quick Takes

• Wall Street posted its worst week since early October, with the S&P 500 falling -2.0% for the week. The small cap Russell 2000 fared better but still declined -0.8%, while the Nasdaq Composite dropped -2.8% from its heavy weighting in technology stocks.
• The world’s largest company, Nvidia, reported third quarter earnings on Wednesday evening. The highly anticipated report easily beat Wall Street expectations and was up a few percentage points on Thursday morning before retreating and ending the day down.
• The September employment report, which was delayed for six weeks by the government shutdown, was finally released on Thursday. Results were mixed, with considerably higher than expected jobs in September, but July and August data was revised down significantly.

Source: Bloomberg. Data as of November 21, 2025.
Price Returns for Equity, Total Returns for Bonds.
* The term basis points (bps) refers to a common unit of measure for interest rates and other percentages in finance. One basis point is equal to 0.01%. Bond prices and bond yields are inversely related. As the price of a bond goes up, the yield decreases.

Stocks fall despite banner earnings and open government

Wall Street posted its worst week since early October, despite a notable rally on Friday. The S&P 500 index had its first four-day losing streak since August on Tuesday. Wednesday brought a marginal bounce of +0.4% but then sank to -1.6% on Thursday. A +1.0% rally Friday helped limit the week’s damage, but ultimately the benchmark index was down -2.0% for the week. The technology-heavy Nasdaq Composite Index lost -2.7% for the week. The small-cap Russell 2000 Index was the leader for the week but still declined -0.8%. 

Although 95% of the S&P 500 companies have reported third quarter earnings, the world’s largest company, Nvidia, didn’t report their results until after the close on Wednesday. The highly anticipated report easily beat Wall Street expectations. Moreover, CEO Jensen Huang said sales of its Artificial Intelligence (AI) chip Blackwell were “off the charts” and that cloud GPUs were “sold out.” The stock immediately jumped in the post-earnings after market trading and was up more than +2% early on Thursday morning. However, as the day progressed, investor concerns about the AI trade grew, and Nvidia and the major US stock indices all retreated, especially the Nasdaq, which fell more than -2% for the day (Nvidia has the largest weight in the index at about +13%).

With the US government back open again, economic data was heavy and grabbed headlines as well. As discussed in more detail in the Chart of the Week section below, the long-delayed September nonfarm payrolls report was released on Thursday, and it showed a mixed labor market. New nonfarm payrolls were well ahead of Wall Street estimates, but the July and August data saw significant downside revisions. The unemployment rate also ticked up to the highest level since October 2021, although that was primarily due to an unexpected increase in labor force participation. 

Friday’s broad rally was helped by rising optimism for another rate cut in mid-December after New York Fed President John Williams called monetary policy “modestly restrictive” and said, ‘I still see room for a further adjustment in the near term to the target range for the federal-funds rate.” Futures trading for a quarter-point rate cut jumped to 70% on the news, up sharply from 39% on Thursday. Earlier in the week, minutes from October’s meeting of the Federal Open Market Committee showed members’ diverging evaluations of the US economy and what the appropriate action for monetary policy should be. The government shutdown limited access to key economic data, leaving private-sector sources as the only line of sight into the state of inflation and employment. This contributed to FOMC members’ increasingly diverse perspectives about a cut at December’s meeting, in which a slight majority seemed to favor holding off.

As bad as the action was for US stocks, it was even worse for overseas investors. Virtually all non-US stock indexes were down big for the week. The developed markets MSCI EAFE Index fell -3.4% as the MSCI indices for Europe, Asia Pacific, and Japan were all down between -3% to -4%. Meanwhile, the MSCI Emerging Markets Index sank -3.7%, weighed down by a -5.5% plunge for the MSCI China Index, largely due in sympathy to the concerns about AI-related valuations.

In the bond world, US Treasury yields fell, generating positive returns as investors sought safety from the equity volatility. The benchmark 10-year US Treasury yield ended the week down -9 basis points at 4.06%, while the 2-year UST yield was down -10 basis points to 3.51%, and the 30-year UST yield ended the week down -4 basis point at 4.71%. With yields down, bond returns were up (bond yields and returns move in opposite directions). The Bloomberg U.S. Aggregate Bond Index returned +0.5% following the prior week’s -0.2% slip. Non-US bonds, however, were down, with the Bloomberg Global Aggregate ex U.S. Bond Index returning -0.9% following a -0.02% dip the previous week and are now down for five straight weeks.

Chart of the Week

Job creation was better than expected for the delayed September report. Nonfarm payrolls increased by +119,000 for the month, well above expectations for +55,000 new payrolls and the most since April. However, the August payrolls were revised lower to a loss of -4,000 versus the +22,000 from the initial report. July nonfarm payrolls were revised to 72,000 from 79,000. The Unemployment Rate increased slightly to +4.4%, primarily due to an unexpected rise in Labor-Force Participation, which was up a tick to 62.4%, versus 62.3% where it was the prior month and where it was expected to stay. Job gains in September came from health care (+43,000), bars and restaurants (+37,000) and social assistance (+14,000). On the downside, transportation and warehousing lost -25,000 and federal government, which had been a large contributor to employment growth last year, was off -3,000 (which is now -97,000 for the calendar year). Professional and business services also reported a decline of -20,000, fueled by a drop of -16,000 in temporary help.  Average hourly earnings increased +0.2% for the month, slower than expectations for a +0.3% increase, though the annual gain of +3.8% was slightly above the forecast for +3.7%. The Fed would like to see wage growth slow to around +3% annually or less, a level it sees as consistent with low inflation. Average Weekly Hours Worked were steady at 34.2 after the prior month was revised down from 34.3, which is where it was expected to remain. September private sector payrolls increased by +97,000, but August private sector payrolls were revised to +18,000 from +38,000, and July private sector payrolls were revised to +56,000 from +77,000. The bottom line is that the report ends a drought on labor market data that began in early September and continued through the record 44-day government shutdown, but overall, this report isn’t likely to be enough to convince the more hawkish-minded Fed officials to cut rates in December.

Delayed September Jobs Report Shows US Economy Added 119,000 Jobs

Monthly job creation in the U.S., Jan. 2022 – Sept. 2025

Source: U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics via FRED, CNBC.

The Week Ahead

From famine to feast. Last week was one of the busiest weeks of economic reports this year as the Federal agencies were once again open and publishing data after the longest government shutdown in history. It was a stark contrast to the previous week, which saw only two regular high frequency economic reports released. Speaking of feasts, this week will be condensed to Monday through Wednesday with markets closed for the Thanksgiving holiday on Thursday and closing early on Friday, with no reports scheduled. Despite the holiday-shortened week, there is a bevy of reports to look forward to. Among some notable indicators, investors will receive delayed Retail Sales figures from the Census Bureau and Producer Price Index readings for September from the Bureau of Labor Statistics on Tuesday, followed by Durable Goods on Wednesday from the Census Bureau. The Fed also releases its final Beige Book for the year on Wednesday.

The third-quarter earnings season is in its final legs, but some major names are still on the docket. Zoom Communications will release results on Monday, Dell Technologies and HP Inc. on Tuesday, and Deere on Wednesday. Roughly 95% of S&P 500 companies have reported results, with more than 80% of them exceeding earnings-per-share estimates and about 75% surpassing sales expectations. According to data from FactSet, blended earnings per share (which combines reported data with estimates for those that have yet to report) show that S&P 500 earnings rose +13.3% compared with the same quarter last year. Blended sales rose +8.4% year over year.  The blended net profit margin for Q3 2025 is +13.1%, which is above the previous quarter and the highest since FactSet began compiling data on this metric in 2009.

Did You Know?

TGIM NO MORE – Last Monday broke a 10-week stretch in which both the S&P 500 and Nasdaq Composite finished the first trading day of the week higher. For both indices, the 10-week streak was tied for the second longest on record, trailing only an 11-week streak that ended in July 2020. (Source: Bespoke)

K-SHAPED MARKET – On November 11, 5.6% of stocks in the large-cap S&P 500 closed within 1% of a 52-week high compared to just 2.9% of stocks in the small-cap Russell 2000. 16.3% of Russell 2000 stocks were down 50% from 52-week highs compared to just 2.2% of S&P 500 stocks. (Source: Bloomberg)

K-SHAPED CONSUMER – Consumer sentiment data from the Conference Board showed a sharp divergence in October based on income. Confidence among consumers making more than $125K had its largest monthly increase in a year, rising to the highest level since January, while those making less than $75K were the least confident since April. (Source: Financial Times)

This Week in History

TURNER B-DAY – On November 19, 1938, Robert Edward Turner was born. After taking over his family’s advertising business, Ted got into TV. He started in 1970 with a single independent UHF station in Atlanta. He launched CNN in 1980 to almost universal predictions of failure, with the original slogan of “The news is the star.” (Source: The Wall Street Journal)

Economic Review

• Due to the current partial US government shutdown, the release of the following reports has been delayed or postponed: 
  • October Industrial Production/Capacity Utilization (Federal Reserve) 
  • October Import/Export Prices (Bureau of Labor Statistics) 
  • October Leading Economic Indicators (Conference Board)
• The preliminary “flash” S&P Global U.S. Composite Purchasing Managers Index (PMI) showed economic activity ticked up in November, rising to 54.8 from 54.6 the month before. That was better than Wall Street expectations of 54.5. Results above 50 signal economic expansion. The Manufacturing PMI dipped to 51.9 from 52.5 the prior month, which was just shy of expectations for 52.0. That’s a four-month low for manufacturing.  Meanwhile, the Services PMI rose to 55.0 from 54.8 the prior month. That was ahead of expectations for 54.6 and marks a four-month high. Although slowing marginally since November, the sustained expansion over the past six months continues to represent on average the best spell for goods production growth since early 2022. Employment rose for the eleventh time in the past 12 months, albeit with the rate of job creation moderating slightly to one of the lowest seen over the past year. Manufacturers took on more staff at the fastest rate for three months, but service sector job creation was only modest and slower than in October. Input cost inflation accelerated sharply in November, hitting the fastest rate for three years, barring the jump in costs seen in May. Tariffs were again the predominant reason cited by companies for increased costs, alongside reports of higher wage rates. Service sector costs rose at the fastest rate since January 2023. In contrast, manufacturing input price inflation cooled to the lowest since February but remained well above the average seen over the past three years. Overall, the increase in prices charged was the second lowest since April. 
• The final reading of the November University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index remains historically low but improved to 51.0 from the preliminary level of 50.3, and better than expectations for it to tick up to 50.6. That is down from 53.6 the prior month. In the same period a year ago, the index stood at 71.8. The Current Economic Conditions component dropped to 51.1 from the preliminary 52.3 from 58.6 the prior month. The Consumer Expectations component rose to 51.0 from 49.0 preliminary reading and 50.3 the prior month. One-year inflation expectations ticked down to 4.6% from the preliminary 4.7%, matching the prior month. The five-year inflation expectations fell to 3.4%, down from the preliminary 3.6% and 3.9% the prior month. The bottom line is that consumer sentiment remains under pressure as inflation, unemployment, mass firings, and now a record-breaking government shutdown have combined to make consumers less cheery as the holidays approach.
• The Commerce Department reported that Factory Orders rose +1.4% in August, matching expectations, and up sharply from -1.3% the prior month and -4.8% the month before that. Factory Orders Excluding Transportation were up +0.1%, shy of expectations for +0.3% and down from +0.5% the prior month after being revised down from +0.6%. Durable Goods Orders for long-lasting items such as televisions, appliances, and transportation equipment rose +2.9%, in line with expectations from where they were in the advance report. That was up sharply from the -2.8% drop in July. Durable Goods Orders Ex Transportation were up +0.3%, below expectations for +0.4%, which was the reading from the advanced reading, and down from +0.9% the prior month. The important Core Capital Goods Orders (capital goods excluding volatile sectors like transportation and defense), a proxy for business spending, was up +0.4%, down from the advance reading, and a big improvement from July’s +0.7% reading. Core Capital Goods Shipments, which are factored into GDP, were down -0.4%, up from the prior month’s +0.6% rise.  The inventory-to-shipments ratio was unchanged at 1.56. 
• Homebuilder confidence inched up in November as the National Association of Home Builders (NAHB) Housing Market Index (HMI) rose +1 point to 38, beating expectations to remain at 37. A year ago, the index stood at 46. The index is based on a 0-to-100 scale, where any number over 50 indicates a good reading, and below 50 is considered negative sentiment. Sentiment has been in negative territory for 18 months in a row. The Current Sales component was up +2 points to 41, while Sales Expectations in the Next Six Months was up +3 points to 51, and Traffic of Prospective Buyers rose +4 points to 25. For the month, 41% of builders reported cutting home prices, up from 38%. The average price reduction remained at 6%. The use of sales incentives beyond price cuts was unchanged at 65% for a third month. On a regional basis, The South and West rose +2 points, while the Midwest fell by -2 points and the Northeast sank -10 points.
• The National Association of Realtors (NAR) reported that Existing Home Sales increased +1.2% in October to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 4.10 million units, slightly above expectations for 4.08 million units and up from the 4.05 million units reported the prior month (+1.3% increase, revised lower from a +1.5% increase or 4.05 million units). Year-over-year existing sales were up +1.7%, versus a +3.9% annual rate the prior month. The Median Existing Home Price increased +2.1% from the prior year to $415,200. The Inventory of Homes for Sale slipped -0.7% from the prior month to 1.52 million units, but is up +10.9% from a year ago. Unsold Inventory sits at a 4.4-month supply, down from 4.5 the previous month. This still lags the 6.0-month supply typically associated with a more balanced market. Homes Listed for Sale remained on the market for 34 days on average, up from 33 days the previous month and 29 days a year ago. First-Time Buyers were 32% of sales in the month, up from 30% the month before. Historically, these buyers make up closer to 40% of home sales, but affordability has been hit hard in the last two years due to fast-rising home prices and higher mortgage rates. All-Cash Sales slipped to 29% of transactions from 30% the prior month. For the month, sales rose +5.3% in the Midwest and +0.5% in the South, but were flat in the Northeast and down -1.3% in the West.
• The Commerce Department reported that Construction Spending was up +0.2% in August, beating expectations to come in at -0.1%, and matching the July level after it was revised higher to +0.2% from the -0.1% originally reported. Over the past year, construction spending was down -1.6%, the same annual rate as the previous month. Total Private Construction was up +0.3% for a second straight month. Total Public Construction was flat from the prior month. Private Residential Spending increased +0.8% after rising +0.1% the previous month, and Private Nonresidential Spending was down -0.3%, after falling -0.5% the prior month. The report showed that Single-Family Construction was down -0.4% after rising +0.1% the prior month, but Multifamily Construction was up +0.2% after it fell -0.4% the previous month. The key takeaway is that residential spending was solely responsible for the increase, but it didn’t include single-family activity.
• The New York Fed’s Empire State Manufacturing Index, a gauge of manufacturing activity in the state, jumped +8.0 points to +18.7 in November, much better than Wall Street expectations for a drop to +5.8 and the best level since one year ago. For a second straight month, demand rebounded meaningfully, with the New Orders indexes rising sharply from +3.7 to +15.9 and Shipments from +14.4 to +16.8. The Employment index improved with Number of Employees up marginally, gaining +0.4 points to +6.6, and Average Employee Workweek jumped +11.8 points to +7.7, its highest level since the spring of 2022.  The inflation gauges both improved, with Prices Paid and Prices Received falling -3.4 points and -3.2 points, respectively. The outlook was the weak link of the report, with the Six Months Ahead General Business Conditions index dropping -11.2 points to +19.1, although it had surged +30.3 points in October.
• According to the U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis, the U.S. Trade Deficit for August narrowed to -$59.6 from -$78.2 billion in July (revised from -$78.3 billion). That was worse than the -$60.4 billion deficit expected. Smaller trade deficits help contribute to economic growth, while larger deficits inhibit growth. This significant reduction was primarily attributed to a notable decline in Imports, which increased +5.9% as industrial supplies, materials, and consumer goods increased, while automotive vehicles, parts, and engines fell. Exports were largely unchanged, just +$0.2 billion more, while Imports fell by -$18.4 billion, about half of which came from a decline in imports of non-monetary gold. Adjusted for inflation, real exports of goods rose by +0.4% in August, while real goods imports fell by -7.2%.
• The Kansas City Fed Manufacturing Survey improved to +8 points in November from +6 in October, which was well above expectations to fall to +3. The Production index rose to +18 from +15 while Shipments rose to +22 from +15, but New Orders slipped to -2 from +1. Employment improved with the Number of Employees jumping to +11 from +1 while the Average Employee Workweek inched up to +1 from -3. The Prices Paid index fell to +36 from +41 while the Prices Received index fell to +13 from +19. The Kansas City Fed Service Sector Outlook Survey slipped to -7 from -5 the prior month (unrevised).
• The Philly Fed Manufacturing Business Outlook Survey rose to -1.7 in November from -12.8 in October. That was short of Wall Street forecasts for a rise to +1.0. Readings above zero indicate economic expansion and below zero signal economic contraction.  The indexes for New Orders, Shipments, and Delivery Times all fell into negative territory at -8.6, -8.7, and -4.3, respectively. On the positive side, the Number of Employees index increased to 6.0 from +4.6 the prior month. The inflation gauges were mixed, with Prices Paid up to +56.1 from +49.2, but the Prices Received down to +17.7 from +26.8.
• Weekly MBA Mortgage Applications fell -5.2% for the week ending November 14, after rising +0.6% the prior week. The Purchase Index was down -2.3% after being up +5.8% the prior week. The Refinance Index fell -7.3% after slipping -3.6% the prior week. The average 30-Year Mortgage Rate ticked up to 6.37% from 6.34% the prior week.
• Weekly Initial Jobless Claims fell -8,000 to 220,000 for the week ending November 15, better than expectations for 227,0000. The prior week was unrevised. The number of people already collecting unemployment claims (i.e., Continuing Claims) rose +28,000 to 1,974,000 for the week ending November 8, and the prior week’s reading was unrevised. That was worse than expectations for 1,950,000. 

Asset Class Performance

Source: Bloomberg.
Asset‐class performance is presented by using market returns from an exchange‐traded fund (ETF) proxy that best represents its respective broad asset class. Returns shown are net of fund fees for and do not necessarily represent performance of specific mutual funds and/or exchange-traded funds recommended by The Retirement Planning Group. The performance of those funds may be substantially different from the performance of the broad asset classes and to proxy ETFs represented here. US Bonds (iShares Core US Aggregate Bond ETF); High‐Yield Bond (iShares iBoxx $ High Yield Corporate Bond ETF); Intl Bonds (Vanguard Total International Bond ETF); Large Growth (iShares Russell 1000 Growth ETF); Large Value (iShares Russell 1000 Value ETF); Mid Growth (iShares Russell Mid-Cap Growth ETF); Mid Value (iShares Russell Mid-Cap Value ETF); Small Growth (iShares Russell 2000 Growth ETF); Small Value (iShares Russell 2000 Value ETF); Intl Equity (iShares MSCI EAFE ETF); Emg Markets (iShares MSCI Emerging Markets ETF); and Real Estate (iShares US Real Estate ETF). The return displayed as “Allocation” is a weighted average of the ETF proxies shown as represented by 24% US Bonds, 10% International Bonds, 6% High Yield Bonds, 13.8% Large Growth, 13.8% Large Value, 3.6% Mid Growth, 3.6% Mid Value, 1.2% Small Growth, 1.2% Small Value, 16.8% International Stock, 4.2% Emerging Markets, 1.8% Real Estate.
* The term basis points (bps) refers to a common unit of measure for interest rates and other percentages in finance. One basis point is equal to 0.01%. Bond prices and bond yields are inversely related. As the price of a bond goes up, the yield decreases.